Since August, Binance has frequently launched contracts for "old coins" that only have spot products, with an interval of only about two days. Every time a contract is launched, the spot price of the token will rise, but this "track" has been targeted by various news arbitrage robots, and the rise often occurs before ordinary users get the news.

In this regard, reviewing the market trends of the 19 coins since their launch, are there any strategies suitable for ordinary users to participate in?

Let’s look at the conclusion first

The first minute after the announcement of the "Old Coin" contract is usually the highest point within 24 hours;

Regardless of short-term or long-term, the profit-loss ratio of manual traders is not ideal;

After the contract goes online, long-term holding will bring higher returns than short-term speculation.

How to gamble in the ultra-short term?

The price data of 19 tokens are counted every minute, and each token is counted for 60 minutes (i.e. 1 hour). The complete data is shown in the following table:

Data summary: The news of the online contract has a significant promoting effect on the coin price, with an average increase of 33% in 1 minute; the highest point in 1 hour increased by an average of 43%; and the closing price of 1 hour fell back to the 1-minute high point.

Is it suitable for ordinary users to buy manually after seeing the news? It is no longer suitable at present. Except for a few tokens in the early stage, it can be seen that the situation of "high point at launch" is becoming more and more prominent, and various news arbitrage robots end the battle within 1 minute.

How is the short-term profit and loss ratio? According to simple calculations, the profit and loss ratio of retail investors who bought after seeing the news was only 1.11.

In summary, it is not recommended for manual trading users to chase longs immediately. Currently, it is more inclined to short after a 1-minute surge (it is necessary to confirm whether there are contracts on other small exchanges).

Will the mid-term upward trend continue or will the contract be opened short at the upper limit?

The price data of 19 tokens are counted every 15 minutes, and each token is counted for 96 15 minutes (i.e. 1 day). The complete data is shown in the following table:

Data summary: The highest increase in 1 hour is consistent with the previous section, with an average of 43%; the highest increase in 24 hours has further increased, with the average rising to 55%, but it is mainly contributed by early ALPACA, SYS, SYNC, etc.; the decline in high points has also widened, with an average decline of 15%.

Will the mid-term trend continue to rise? This effect has disappeared at present. The early ALPACA tokens can continue to rise after a short-term FOMO, but the recent tokens have less and less obvious effects. The recent tokens also "high point at the launch", and the rise was completed in the first minute of the first hour.

How is the mid-term profit and loss ratio? According to the algorithm in the previous section, the mid-term profit and loss ratio has further dropped to 0.73 (11 ÷ 15), which is obviously not suitable for long positions.

So is it okay to go short? The last two columns of this table list the performance of the contract after it went online. It can be seen that if the short-term contract has weak profitability, but if it is enlarged to 24 hours, the decline will increase significantly, so it is more suitable for mid-line shorting.

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