Market Analysis


The trend at this moment is basically consistent with the analysis last night. ETH's trend is slightly weaker than BTC. ETH's trend is larger than BTC's pullback. BTC did not touch 62650-62850, ETH touched 2571-2583, and the lowest touched 2554 but did not touch 2545. The K-line on the 25th closed, and a new K-line opened today!


BTC Focus


Support 61850/60300 Pressure is temporarily set at 63650


The key point at the moment is the 62600-62800 line, which is the lower track of the bottom support channel after hitting the bottom in the early morning of the 7th. It has not been effectively broken before. Today we can pay attention to the gains and losses in this range!


Operation: Continue to adhere to the long-term thinking of fixed investment. The mid-term positions that have been reduced recently should be stabilized and continue to move closer to the end of the month. In the short term, if there is an opportunity at the current high position, just short it. If there is no opportunity, just wait! When the direction is unclear, don't rush to guess the size! Patience is also part of trading!


图片


Today's key economic data and events


1. 20:30 Number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 21

2. 20:30 Final value of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the United States

3. 20:30 Final value of US real personal consumption expenditure quarterly rate in the second quarter

4. 20:30 Final value of the annualized quarterly rate of the US core PCE price index in the second quarter

5. 21:15 Federal Reserve Board Member Bowman delivers a speech

6. 21:20 Fed Chairman Powell delivers a speech at the meeting

7. 21:30 ECB President Lagarde delivers a speech at the meeting

8. 22:30 Federal Reserve Board Member Lisa Cook participates in roundtable discussion


图片


Possible positive and negative effects in the near future


There is no sign of easing of the situation in the Middle East. The Israeli military commander informed his troops that he is preparing for a possible ground offensive in Lebanon. Biden: A full-scale war may break out in the Middle East, but there is also an opportunity to reach a breakthrough solution. French Foreign Minister: Working with the United States to promote a 21-day temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Iranian Foreign Minister: If a full-scale war breaks out in Lebanon, Iran will not stay out of it.


Federal Reserve Board Governor Kugler: I strongly support the Fed’s previous 50 basis point rate cut and should focus more on employment. CME Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in November has risen to 60.3%.


Harris said the United States should take a "leading" position in the blockchain field and reiterated his support for digital assets. We have said before that no matter who is in power, the encryption trend is unstoppable and can only move forward and cannot go back.


According to the U.S. Bureau of Prisons website, CZ, who has been in prison for nearly four months, will be released on September 29. The latest news shows that CZ has left the prison after 118 days in Lompoc Prison II and has been transferred to the Reentry Management Office RRM Long Beach. He is currently in custody.


CZ’s release from prison will undoubtedly be an important turning point for the crypto market
 
1. Rebuilding market confidence


Many investors believe that CZ's return may rekindle the market's confidence in Binance. As one of the world's largest crypto exchanges, Binance has a pivotal position in the industry. CZ's leadership and industry experience are expected to help Binance consolidate its leading position in the highly competitive market and attract more users and investors.
 
2. Challenges of the regulatory environment


Although CZ's release from prison may have a positive impact, Binance will face greater compliance pressure as the global cryptocurrency regulatory environment becomes increasingly stringent. Regulators in various countries are increasingly requiring anti-money laundering, user identity verification, and transaction transparency. Binance needs to continue to promote innovation and user growth while ensuring compliance.
 
3. Market volatility and concerns about asset sell-offs


CZ's personal assets are estimated to be tens of billions of dollars, most of which are held in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Binance Coin (BNB). The market is worried that he may sell a large number of crypto assets, especially BNB, after his release from prison, which may trigger sharp market fluctuations. However, analysts point out that CZ's position as a long-term holder makes a large-scale sell-off less likely.