Analyst, blogger and author of the S2F model PlanB gave a big forecast for BTC, for three years ahead.
It sounds like this:
- October 2024: classic pump month - BTC rate reaches $70,000;
- November 2024: Donald Trump wins the election, ending the Biden/Harris/Warren/Gensler Democrat war on cryptocurrencies. BTC reaches $100,000;
- December 2024: massive inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETF. BTC - $150,000;
- January 2025: Crypto people/companies return to the US. BTC - $200,000;
- February 2025: Power Law model supporters sell. BTC - $150,000;
- March 2025: Bitcoin becomes legal tender in Bhutan, Argentina and Dubai. BTC - $300,000;
- April 2025: Trump/USA starts creating BTC strategic reserve. BTC - $400,000;
- May 2025: other countries (except EU) join the "rat race". BTC - $500,000;
- June 2025: Several AIs start using BTC for autonomous arbitrage. BTC - $600,000;
- July-December 2025: FOMO. New ATH BTC - $1 million.
- 2026: Distribution phase. BTC returns to $500,000.
- 2027: Bear market. BTC bottoms at $200,000.
There are different attitudes towards PlanB. Many still remember his forecast from July 2021, when he wrote that $135,000 in December 2021 is the worst-case scenario for BTC. But in general, he allowed for $450,000 by the end of 2021.
Eventually, at some point, he lost faith in his forecasting model. But with the return of the bull market, he returned to it.
Subjectively, the problem is not in PlanB's analysis models (they are very good), but in how he interprets their signals. Being a bull by nature, he always tends to overstate growth expectations. And this time, by the way, with his $1 million per#BTCtargets, too. Just a few months ago, he predicted BTC growth of 7-10 times from current values, based on the dynamics of past cycles. Now, as you can see, the stakes have risen.
On September 16, PlanB wrote that “Bitcoin is just waiting for a trigger to explode higher.”
Let us recall that according to his model, the months-dots are still red - the asset is in a bull run. And it is striking that the bull run has been going on for a very long time this time and at the same time it is... let's say, horizontal 😬. The reason is obvious and we wrote about it - many early addresses continue to distribute#BTCto new buyers. Until this process weakens and ends, the sideways movement will continue. And then, as soon as (or, for skeptics, "if")#BTCupdates ATH again - this can cause a sharp upward movement.
Let's recall that on August 20, PlanB wrote that the current price area of $60,000 is approximately 4 "x" from the bottom. And it was this level of 4x from the bottom that was the consolidation level before the pumps in 2017 and 2020-2021.
What would be an unpleasant surprise for PlanB, his followers and bulls in general is if the new mark turned yellow in the coming months. BUT this is not a death sentence for the bull run. As history shows, after this, the bull run returned in previous cycles - in 2013 and 2021.
