With a cumulative increase of 29% so far this year, spot gold stood at $2,660/ounce on September 25, continuing to hit a new high.

For this Friday's PCE price index, economists expect that it may show that US inflation has fallen from 2.5% to 2.3%, hitting the lowest level since the beginning of 2021, and may reach the 2.0% target by January or February next year. S&P said that the US economic growth rate is expected to slow from 2.7% this year to 1.8% next year, and the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates. The upcoming easing period is more of a precautionary measure to prevent economic growth from being too low below potential.

Inflation of around 2.5-3% corresponds to the Federal Reserve's interest rate of around 5%, which is obviously inappropriate. The latter will continue to move closer to the former (the so-called neutral interest rate). At present, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points again in November is 60.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 39.7%.

The US dollar is weakening, and the US dollar index fell from 106.5 in April this year to a new low of 100.16 this week, a drop of nearly 6%. The coming of a continuous loose monetary cycle will drive the continued growth of risk assets denominated in US dollars (or bubble growth, forming the so-called bull market) until the next tightening, which is still a long way off.

The market is volatile, so it is recommended to take profit and stop loss.

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