Gold is going crazy, breaking through all-time highs. Bitcoin rose by $4,000 in the past week, and Ethereum rose by nearly $300. The crypto industry experienced its best week since September. If it can keep up, the Bitcoin decline curse in September will be broken. Some analysts even said that this is just the beginning, and the next October or even the entire Q4 will usher in a bigger explosion.
What are the factors driving Bitcoin's recent rise?
1. The Fed cuts interest rates, kicking off the rise of Bitcoin
In the early morning of September 19th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve started a radical interest rate cut, the first in four years, and a direct 50BP reduction, which exceeded many people's expectations. Bitcoin quickly soared and broke through the $62,000 mark.
2. Gold surges
Gold also surged after the Fed cut interest rates. Gold has now exceeded $2,600, and has risen by $540 this year, making it the best year since 1979. Investors are risk-averse, and Bitcoin, as digital gold, has also risen along with gold.
3. Ethereum rebounds, driving market sentiment back to health
Ethereum has bottomed out and rebounded in recent days, boosting the activity of the entire ecosystem. Market sentiment has improved, and all sectors are rising, which also plays an important role in maintaining the price of Bitcoin.
4. Harris publicly announced his support for the crypto industry for the first time
Harris said at a fundraiser in New York yesterday that if elected, she would encourage innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence and digital assets while protecting our consumers and investors. This is the first time Harris has commented on cryptocurrency as a Democratic presidential candidate. People in the crypto industry have always praised Harris.
How will the market develop in the future?
Let me first state the conclusion. Lao K believes that there is still a risk of a final decline in this round. If there is a decline, it will only happen once (buy decisively when it drops). From now until the middle of next year, there will be a slow bull trend! The reasons are as follows:
1. BTC's market share has been rising for two years. In the process of QT to QE, BTC's market share will peak and will be accompanied by a long weekly decline.
2. During the Fed’s interest rate cuts over the past 40 years, the U.S. stock market has experienced a sharp drop, and most of them occurred around the second or third rate cut. BTC is certainly not immune.
3. The realization of QE will truly bring about an explosion of liquidity in the cryptocurrency circle, and only then will the raging bulls enjoy the bubble moment. This time is obviously after the second half of 2025.
4. From the market, BTC has gone through three complete weekly waves. It could be that 73,000 has peaked and is currently rebounding, and then continues to fall after the rebound. It could also be that BTC hits a new high, completes 5 waves, and then falls. In any case, unless BTC rises above 100,000, it will face a weekly top divergence or the weekly rebound will fail to hit a new high, which will lead to a long-term sharp correction.
Although the market is constantly being cleansed, from the current price we can see that the total decline of BTC is not large, ETH is slightly more, and the altcoins are incomparable, many of which have been halved again and again. Now we can only say that a new stage has begun, so keep a good attitude, the past is the past, and we have to take the roller coaster ride.
Everyone should cherish the chips in their hands and not throw them away easily. Holding them until the end of the year is the right choice.
The interest rate cut cycle has begun, and the next surge in the market is clear, but it will take time to brew. Don't miss the opportunity
(I plan to ambush some low-market-cap coins with good news in the near future to help everyone recover. The current market situation is not stable. I will take 30% in the short term. The next password will be announced soon!!)
