After the rate cut, the market's sensitivity to macro policies has decreased a lot. In fact, there are still several important events this week that will have an impact on the market. One is the speeches of various Fed officials, which will run throughout this week and can directly affect the market's expectations for subsequent rate cuts. Then there is the second quarter GDP final value data on Thursday night, as well as speeches by Powell and ECB President Lagarde, and finally the PCE inflation data on Friday. Although inflation is no longer the focus that can affect the extent of the rate cut, this is the first inflation data released after the rate cut. The market has not completely forgotten the risk of inflation rebound, so this also needs attention. Generally speaking, this week's macro events still have a mild impact on the market, which is why I expect the currency market to maintain an upward trend after the rate cut. I still look forward to Bitcoin breaking through 6w5 this week.

Market Analysis

The market trend has been fluctuating back and forth in the past two days. BTC hit resistance yesterday and stepped back during the day, but the force was not very strong. After opening in the early morning, it rebounded and hit the previous high again. ETH still reached the pin near yesterday's resistance position. BTC is starting to show the high point of the current trend on the four-hour level and the daily line. The upward rush is beginning to lose strength. If the high point is determined today, then the market will start to step back periodically. ETH's compensatory rise is still in a relatively small range. The overall market performance can be seen from the market dynamics. The extremely optimistic performance and some positive factors further indicate that the market needs to cash out at high levels.

Today's highlights

BTC

BTC hits the previous high again. At the intraday level, we can first look at the pullback. It is also a staged pullback. At the intraday level, the small-level support line at the short-term level can focus on the line near 62,600. After breaking through, we can pay attention to the 60,600-61,200 range. This support position belongs to the current daily support position, so just focus on this.

ETH

Last night, there was an explosive positive rumor about Ethereum, saying that Vitalik and his girlfriend had officially broken up, and that Vitalik would work day and night on EVM development, and that he was locked in monk mode. It is unknown whether this news is true or not, and now that market confidence and sentiment are on the rise, even the fake can be hyped up as real. Ethereum's price is also very strong, and it has now stabilized at 2,600. The ETH/BTC exchange rate reached a high of around 0.0425 last night. In addition, the staking protocol carrier eigenlayer token on Ethereum will be unlocked on September 30, which may bring a substantial increase in the activity on the Ethereum chain. Recently, the gas on the ETH chain has been above 10, and I have a hunch that Ethereum's compensatory rally may be coming.

ETH hit the resistance yesterday and started to fall back. Today, the same level again reached this position. It began to show weakness at the four-hour level. The resistance position of the intraday level remains unchanged at around 2660. The first support position line below focuses on the support position near 2560. The support point of the intraday level can focus on the range of 2480-2520.

If we look at it from the perspective of the bull and bear stages, we are now in the middle of the fourth bull market in the cryptocurrency world.

We know that the cryptocurrency market has a four-year cycle: three years of bear market and one year of bull market. In this short year, the first eight months are mostly slow wash and decline, while the next two months are surging, and the last two months are peaking.

Strictly speaking, this bull market will not really start until October 2024.

So now, we can think that we are in the middle stage of the bull market. The real outbreak period may be one month away, and it is expected to usher in the frenzy around October and end around May 2025.

The cryptocurrency market will not keep rising or falling, the market is developing very fast. We must experience a rapid rise to catch up with the market value of gold.

Therefore, in a four-year cycle, the real outbreak period is usually completed within 3 to 5 months. In other words, you waited for four years just for that 3 to 5 months opportunity! If you miss this period, the profit may be gone, or even a loss may occur.

The cryptocurrency world also needs a sharp drop to eliminate scams, junk projects and speculators

Efficiency is the most important feature of the cryptocurrency world, which was created to change financial efficiency. Therefore, when the bear market begins, it is best not to keep other projects except Bitcoin and Ethereum. Only these two projects can truly survive the cycle, and the others may just be runners-up.

So, wait patiently for the arrival of the violent bull market! If you have already configured your positions, you must have confidence in yourself. You can make minor adjustments, but try not to move your large positions.