The BTC rate has been locked between the volume levels of $62,987 and $64,120 for the fifth day. Moreover, all five daily candles are of the “doji” format or close to it.
There is uncertainty in the market. The price has again tested the minor upward trend from August 7 (marked with a dashed line) and received a buyer's reaction, but it is not enough to exit the local range between volume levels.
We still expect a quick correction and the longer buyers cannot take the price above $64,120, the more confident this expectation becomes.
According to candle structures yesterday, as expected, on the four-hour TF it became downward. On the current candle there is an attempt to break the trend. But there is still almost an hour before the candle closes. If there is a break and the price closes not lower than the $63,300 area, we can expect another attempt to break through $64,120. For now, for us, the maximum scenario is a withdrawal of liquidity behind yesterday's high of $64,745. And the formation of a bull trap. Due to the fact that on the daily TF of September 24-26, these are still potential reversal candles for the start of a correction.
Otherwise, there is nothing to add to yesterday. Important 👇
A comfortable correction target for bulls, which we expect, is the volume and mirror level of $59,335. Or a test of the current level of 0.5 according to Fibonacci of the uptrend since August, $58,647. A move lower is a reason for bulls to worry. Important supports, squeezes below which are possible, but it is better to close candles above - EMA 50 and 200 of the daily TF (currently $0,476 and $59,560, respectively).
The correction perspective can be broken only by consolidating above the important volume and mirror level of $64,120. And optimally - with strong impulse movements, taking the price significantly higher. Then the whole situation will need to be re-evaluated.
Our P73 Trend & Target Dynamics in this range continues to give profitable basic setups on the 15-minute TF. Five setups in a row with saved stop-losses and full working out of basic targets.
5-minute and 30-minute TF show more “knocked out” basic stop losses in this range.
The risk-reward in such a sideways movement on local setups is questionable. If you really want to trade a local picture or test an indicator on it, it makes sense to play it safe. As an option:
- Pay more attention not only to the change of a stable trend (background), but also to the marks of potential highs and lows.
- Take only those signals that have not yet missed the key impulse movement when a stable trend changes.
- Move the stop to breakeven when the first basic targets are reached.
We have set an alert for#BTCon a transition to a stable downtrend on the hourly TF. This should be an important confirmation signal in case of a correction start. Another signal of a potential high in the uptrend on this TF is already there.
As you can see, on the daily TF the indicator has its first potential reversal candle today.
On September 15-16, such a signal was broken, which does not happen often on the BTC daily chart. Let's see if the bulls can make a "double". If the short signal is broken again, it will be a strong signal of buyer dominance. We remind you that the most important resistance in this case is the downward trend since March 14. Currently, it is in the region of $68,745.
A breakout of this trend, if true, should mark the start of a BTC bull run.
