The Bitcoin bull market is like the sun that is bound to rise, full of certainty. Next, let us analyze the top ten reasons why the Bitcoin bull market will inevitably come in 2025, and explain them in descending order.
Tenth place, the historical pattern of rising in October. In the past ten years, Bitcoin has a very high probability of rising in October. From 2013 to 2023, there were eight declines in September, with a probability of 73%, while there were nine increases in October, with a probability of 82%. The "curse" of September seems to always be accompanied by a rebound in October, and the pattern of historical data is very likely to continue to take effect in the future.
Ninth place, FTX compensation funds are injected into the market. The FTX compensation amount of up to 16 billion US dollars is mostly for senior cryptocurrency investors. Once these funds are in place, they will bring a large amount of on-site liquidity to the market. These senior investors firmly believe that the bull market is coming in 2025, and they will definitely use this money to actively increase their Bitcoin positions.
Eighth place, the Fear and Greed Index is close to a historical low. The current cryptocurrency market's Fear and Greed Index is close to a historical low, and similar situations have occurred in the bear markets of 2018 and 2022. However, we are now on the eve of a bull market, and such extreme panic is rare. This means that the market is very likely to usher in a strong retaliatory rebound after the panic, as Buffett said: "I am greedy when others are fearful, and I am fearful when others are greedy."
No. 7: Selling pressure has been basically lifted. The German government and Mt. Gox were once major sources of selling pressure in the Bitcoin market. But now, the German government has sold all of its Bitcoins, and most of the Bitcoins in Mt. Gox have been distributed to victims. These once worrying selling pressures have been lifted, and the market is no longer overly anxious about them.
Sixth place, the supply of stablecoins is close to a record high. In 2023, the market value of stablecoins increased by 30%, from $130 billion to $170 billion, reaching an all-time high. This fully demonstrates that investors' confidence in the cryptocurrency market is growing, and more and more people are willing to transfer funds from traditional banks to blockchain. As an important entry point to the crypto market, the growth of stablecoin supply will surely provide strong support for Bitcoin prices.
Fifth, Bitcoin computing power has reached a record high. In September 2023, the computing power of the Bitcoin network exceeded 804 EH/s, and the mining difficulty reached 89.47 T, both of which set a record high. This means that the security and stability of the Bitcoin network have been further improved, which is undoubtedly a very positive signal for the fundamentals of Bitcoin. The strength and stability of the network are important guarantees for the long-term healthy development of Bitcoin.
Fourth, the approval of ETFs. In April 2023, the approval of ETFs paved the way for large-scale capital inflows into the Bitcoin market. Although the market has reacted to the news, the real impact will be seen after the interest rate cut. When liquidity pours in through the ETF channel, Bitcoin prices are expected to rise sharply.
Third, Bitcoin halving. Bitcoin halving is coming, which means that mining rewards will be reduced by half while the supply remains unchanged. The reduction in supply will inevitably drive prices up. Usually, the halving effect will begin to appear about 500 days after the halving. Therefore, the bull market in 2025 is likely to be strongly driven by this factor.
Second, interest rate cuts. The Fed’s interest rate cut is almost certain. The interest rate cut will inject a lot of liquidity into the market. Although there may be short-term market fluctuations after the interest rate cut, in the long run, the interest rate cut will definitely bring huge incremental funds to the Bitcoin market and become an important force to promote the bull market.
First, the presidential election. The 2024 US presidential election will be a powerful driving force for the Bitcoin market. Whether it is Trump or other candidates, their attitude towards cryptocurrencies will directly affect market sentiment. In addition, the US Treasury may also further release liquidity by increasing government spending to match the election cycle. This will not only drive up US stocks, but also drive the cryptocurrency market to prosperity. At the same time, meme coins such as Marvin# address 7055, which are related to Musk's pet dog, have a strong community consensus, are given 500 times expectations, and are expected to be listed on major exchanges. Its current market value is low, which is indeed suitable for building a position. In summary, the arrival of the Bitcoin bull market in 2025 is full of certainty.
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