1. Japan's labor shortage further proves that the aging population will lead to inflation, which indirectly affects the value of the yen. In addition, China's youth unemployment rate is also increasing. In August, China's youth unemployment rate reached 18.8%.
2. According to the historical data, whenever #美联储减息 , corporate profits will decline, but this time the profits did not decline. Friends, do you think that profits will decline as the economy weakens? (Figure 1)
3. As of September, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has been falling. If this continues, it will fall for 5 consecutive months, which has not happened since 2010 (Figure 2)
4. According to sources: Large speculators or hedge funds have expanded their short positions in #标普500 futures. Are they betting that#USstocks will collapse due to excessive rate cuts?
5. In a few years, Japan will have a large number of vacant#realestates. Similar situations have also occurred in South Korea, Italy and Germany. In these countries, real estate investment except for first-class locations will be very risky. Will this situation still apply to China? (Figure 3)
6. Market pricing indicates that the probability of a recession in the United States is 100%. The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by more than 2.00% in the next 12 months. This rate cut is still very large. Goldman Sachs previously stated that this means that the probability of an economic recession in the next 12 months is 100%. What do you think of this?
7. An interesting phenomenon is that the money supply in the United States is on an upward trend. Friends in the currency market may be more concerned about this (Figure 4)
8. Let's talk about tonight's #PMI. Manufacturing remained in contraction due to falling new orders and demand, while prices continued to fall, causing manufacturing input inflation to fall to a 6-month low. Lower energy prices certainly helped. Composite and services slowed slightly, but remained strong overall.
Let’s talk about the US Composite Purchasing Managers Index: Although demand is not being met by hiring and the number of employed people is falling, the average price of goods and services continues to rise.
US Services PMI: Business is strong and export orders are rising, but business confidence weakens further with employment falling and concerns about future demand, interestingly prices rose to a 6 month high due to rising wages although wages actually rose 2-3 years ago
The macro data to watch this week include: In addition to tonight's PMI, there are also:
Consumer Confidence Index (Tuesday)
New Home Sales (Wednesday)
US second quarter GDP (Thursday)
Initial jobless claims (Thursday)
Fed Chairman Powell Speech (Tuesday)
Pending Home Sales (Thursday)
Core PCE inflation data (Friday)
Consumer confidence (Friday)
9. Interestingly, MicroStrategy has purchased#Bitcoin40 times in the past four years #BTC☀️ with an investment of about $10 billion
10. Bitcoin $BTC
's dominance is waning, does this mean#altcoinseason is coming?
