Macro at a Grace
Federal Reserve interest rate decision (9.19 2:00)
Announced 5.00% Expected 5.25% Previous value 5.50%
Bank of Japan interest rate decision (9.20 11:00)
Announced 0.25% Previous value 0.25%
Number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 14 (10,000 people) (9.19 20:30)
Announced 21.9 Expected 23 Previous value 23.1
US SEC approves BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF options listing (9.21 5:00)
On-Chain Macro
On-chain purchasing power
After the rate cut, short-term holdings began to increase, and began to decrease over the weekend, with no continuation trend. Long-term holdings behaved in the opposite way, and the purchasing power of long and short hands on the chain did not change much. We will observe whether the increase in short-term holdings can be maintained in the future.
Exchange purchasing power
Net inflow of stablecoins into exchanges
Share of Bitcoin in Exchanges
Bitcoin net inflows into exchanges
The amount of Bitcoin on exchanges continues to decrease. After purchase, it is stored in custodians or hardware wallets and withdrawn from circulation.
Exchanges continue to contribute purchasing power, but the growth rate of stablecoin inflows has slowed down and its sustainability is limited.
Off-site purchasing power
OTC purchasing power follows the flow of US stocks, Bitcoin OTC purchasing power increases, and Ethereum continues to weaken
Summarize
There is no obvious change in the purchasing power on the chain. The stablecoins flowing into the exchange form purchasing power. OTC ETFs follow the rotation of US stocks.
Thought of the Week
With a 50bp interest rate cut, Powell emphasized strong economic growth and submitted a pledge of allegiance to the Democratic Party?
Historically, soft landings rarely start with a rate cut of 50bp.
Powell: This rate cut is compensatory + preventive, and the US economy remains robust
As the Democratic Party's approval rating rises in the polls, will Powell, as a Republican, submit a pledge of allegiance to keep his office?
After a 50bp rate cut, does the Fed have more information about the recession?
The dot plot does not support: At the end of 2024, the interest rate will be cut twice to 4.25-4.50, 4 times in 2025 to 3.25-3.50, and 2 times in 2026 to 2.75-3.0, and then maintained in this range, which is a precautionary interest rate cut.
Market behavior does not support: 10-year US Treasury yields rose, 2-year US Treasury yields fell, 10-2 yields widened, long-term US Treasury yields reflect economic expectations, short-term US Treasury yields reflect liquidity expectations, market behavior shows a tendency towards a soft landing
American investors and global investors have different interpretations of the 50bp rate cut. On the day of the rate cut, the Nasdaq closed down 0.31%, the S&P 500 fell 0.29%, and the Dow Jones fell 0.25%. The Nikkei, Hong Kong stocks, and Bitcoin soared, and the risk appetite of global funds increased.
The pricing power has shifted from the OTC market to the OTC market. The copycat market has awakened, and the increase has occurred more during the US market holiday.
The approval of option ETFs can introduce hedge funds to a certain extent and reduce market volatility (buy spot, buy put options, limited losses, unlimited gains)
Conditions for the arrival of a violent bull market: easing cycle + innovation cycle, there is still a period for building positions
The current market pricing is moving in the direction of a soft landing. Monetary policy stimulus is limited and needs to be matched with loose fiscal policy. With Trump's election and the Republicans controlling Congress, stimulus bills are relatively easy to pass, creating relatively loose liquidity.
Token 2049 feedback: primary market innovation is weak, funds are more focused on Solana (capital resource intensive) and Ton ecosystem (low customer unit price traffic)
Macro calendar
