The Bitcoin market has behaved differently in this cycle, and most people are not ready for the sudden bull run.
If you are familiar with the cryptocurrency market, you know that we usually go through a 4-year cycle. About 6 months after the Bitcoin halving occurs, Bitcoin explodes and soars to a new all-time high, taking the altcoin market and other markets with it.
Bitcoin’s history won’t repeat itself
That being said, you must always remember that Bitcoin seems to have a mind of its own and likes to go against the trend. Just when everyone thinks they know what Bitcoin will do next, it does something completely different. This is the exact reason why trading Bitcoin with leverage is a fool’s errand. When you start to believe that you know the future of Bitcoin without a doubt and start trading with that mindset, this can drive you away from Bitcoin faster.
In fact, we are in an unprecedented period in Bitcoin’s history. Due to the incredible hype and demand generated by the launch of the US spot Bitcoin ETF, for the first time in Bitcoin’s history, its price hit a new all-time high before the BTC halving occurred. It soared all the way to $73,000.
Once this happens, it means anything is possible.
We have never experienced a bull cycle where Wall Street was able to fully participate. From that point on, all future price predictions and everything we thought we knew could be thrown in the trash. Now anything is possible.
Bitcoin and the United States
If you follow US politics, you will most likely also know that Donald Trump has completely changed his stance on Bitcoin. He even said that if elected president, he would establish a US National Bitcoin Reserve. This event would trigger unimaginable buying pressure and game theory, potentially driving the price of Bitcoin to millions of dollars per coin. If this were to happen, none of us would be optimistic enough. Of course, this would require Trump to be elected and to deliver on his promises. Both of these things are not guaranteed.
However, there is one aspect of the cryptocurrency market that many people do not pay enough attention to. In contrast, Bitcoin has hit a new all-time high and is still hovering near its all-time high. Almost all altcoins have fallen sharply compared to the previous cycle and BTC.
Traditionally, altcoin prices have been linked to Bitcoin like a magnet, even without any reason or merit. But that all seems to be changing.
My theory is that the launch of a US spot Bitcoin ETF is a complete game changer.
The impact of ETFs on the crypto market
While a lot of money is being invested in Bitcoin through these ETFs, the key point is that this money is only invested in Bitcoin ETFs and not in altcoins.
You also need to remember who the main demographic that has traditionally bought altcoins is. It’s usually retail buyers who are not doing well financially and are trying to gamble for a good fortune and change their financial situation. But the world around us has changed. We’ve experienced a lot of inflation, which has really hurt the average citizen. The end result is that they have a harder time paying for necessities and don’t have as much disposable money to invest in risky markets like cryptocurrencies.
What all this means is that altcoins are not necessarily going to perform well in this cycle, and that should never be your expectation.
This could very well be the cycle where the cryptocurrency market begins to mature and asset prices rise or fall based on real value. If this all happens at a time when Bitcoin is experiencing a supply shock due to the BTC halving, ETF demand, and political gamesmanship.
Well, all this could lead to a rush to buy Bitcoin, causing it to go parabolic. It could also spell doom for altcoins that have no real use case. This cycle could end up being the last one where you can get rich from this market. Act accordingly.
