September 22, 2024

Yesterday I wrote a copy of DODO. Of course, it was also an objective data list, not a shouting order. However, the main reason why DODO was criticized by the market was that it fell too much. Imagine a coin that fell from a few dollars to 0.1, and the highest price was 10 dollars. It is understandable that you want to scold people. If anyone buys this coin, they will spray a few words. But I want to say that scolding is useless. It is better to think about why you buy these coins. Grandpa also came from a new leek. Not to mention the coins that fell 100 times, I have bought a lot of coins that have returned to zero, but this situation rarely happens now.

In fact, these can be avoided through a simple indicator, that is FDV. The so-called FDV is the total market value, and there is also a corresponding concept of "circulating market value". The total market value is the total issuance of the currency * the number, but often only a part of it will be issued and circulated in the market at the beginning, and the rest will basically be locked first and then released in batches (such as mining release, unlocking according to timeline). When new coins were launched this year, this routine was adopted a lot. For example, ARB has a total amount of 10 billion, and only 1 billion were circulated when it was launched. In this way, the circulating market is 1 billion, which is relatively easier to control. However, with the unlocking and release, the circulation of ARB will change from 1 billion to 2 billion, 3 billion, and finally 10 billion. Obviously, if the project does not have a qualitative breakthrough, the price will fall (the same funds will correspond to more quantities).

Let's talk about DODO. The total amount is 1 billion. What if it maintains 10 dollars? It is even better than UNI. Do you think it is possible? Obviously, the reason why it can maintain such a high price at the beginning is the combination of low circulation and market FOMO. Buying in at this time will often lead to taking over. The circulating market value and total market value I mentioned can be seen on Coingecko. When you encounter a new project, you can consider it this way. Those projects with high FDV are definitely not suitable for long-term holding. Of course, you say that it is suitable to buy now that the FDV is low? That is definitely not the case. This involves another judgment logic, and this is more difficult. We can only talk about it slowly when encountering different situations. Finally, I would like to add that you should not trust anyone's advice on buying coins. It is a long-term plan to regard these as part of your own judgment system.

Finally, I will continue to talk about the market. In fact, it is similar to yesterday's judgment. Ethereum broke through 2,600 US dollars today and then fell back, which was completely expected. The breakthrough is because Ethereum's funds are strong, and a large number of short orders have just exploded. In theory, it will further force shorts after sideways trading; and the retracement is linked to Bitcoin, and the pressure of 65,000 is obvious. From this point of view, Ethereum still has a chance to pull the exchange rate back a little, but if Bitcoin really can't get through this pressure, the market will continue to adjust downward. Overall, it is more appropriate to take a defensive step, or I see that some people have changed the profit-taking of the copycat to Ethereum, which is also a good method.

Thank you for your attention and likes.