Hello everyone, I am Shihun.
I will keep this post on the top for a while. It is my thoughts on the daily chart of Bitcoin in the future, and also includes my personal thoughts on the bull market or the bear market.
Thinking:
1. The daily chart is of a larger level. I personally think that if you want to grasp the long-term price fluctuations, the daily chart is more realistic than the weekly and monthly charts. (The weekly and monthly cycles are longer, and waiting for a K line for a month or a week seems to be a bit unsuitable for the fast-paced market such as the currency circle)
2. This post only looks at the price pattern of the daily K line for analysis, and no other indicators or theories are used as reference.
First of all, Bitcoin has a long stretch from 2024.1.23 The price of 38540 US dollars stretched to 2024.3.14 The highest point of 73800, then the four-year halving mechanism of Bitcoin was launched, and the price immediately entered the descending triangle diffusion wedge shown in the chart below (this pattern can be a top pattern or a continuous pattern). The characteristics of this pattern are that the highs are getting lower and lower, and the lows are getting lower and lower. From March 14th to now, I think it is a consolidation of the violent stretch of 40,000 points on January 14th. The appearance of a descending triangle diffusion wedge is a consolidation of the 40,000-point pull-up.
3. But! This pattern has a probability of being the top, that is, if the pattern is the top, then I think 73,800 is the top of this round of bull market, and it will turn bearish or will pull back to a fairly low position (back to the starting point of the stretch). At present, I personally prefer it to be a consolidation of the previous wave of rise as a continuous pattern.
4. How to judge whether the consolidation is completed or out, the next wave of highs, the daily k-level entity can break through 68,000, then I think the pattern here has been out, and the real bull market will start soon if the upward trend continues (80,000-100,000-120,000). If the daily k-level entity falls below 48,888, then the cold winter is coming, and the big cake spot in your hand will tell you what asset halving is!
Not enough to write, so the following content is placed in Figure 2!
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