I often hear people praising someone, saying, "Wow, you are so awesome, really great."
What is actually being praised is that the person's subjective analysis is consistent with market facts, and the more the analysis results are consistent with the market in the short term, the more sincere the praise will be.
But the truth is, no one gets rich by analyzing the market, not even one.
There are indeed people who get rich by guessing the right coins, and you seem to see it often, many times a year, such as Bome this year, Pepe last year, and NEIRO a few days ago.
You emotionally think that getting rich is a normal thing. In fact, there is a rational voice in your heart telling you, how can everyone get rich? It is definitely not like that. But you also believe that I must be different from others. How can I know if I don’t try? I must be special, I am better than them, and then I will definitely get rich. This is the illusion.
Many people mistake guessing for analysis.
Analyzing the market is a strategy that uses logical analysis. Although the logic is sound, errors can still occur.
For example, a while ago I said I wanted to do reef, and this tripled, but it was useless, I only dared to buy 5000U. I didn't dare to buy 1 million.
If you buy 1 million, you will get a profit of 2 million.
Next time I encounter the same situation and do it again, I still won’t use 1 million because there is a high probability that I will be wrong.
If weather forecasts can be wrong, how can analysis be correct?
Making money depends on what happens in the market.
However, market facts, such as a bull market, are not analyzed. They are irregular, but you can clearly know that they are not coming, and this perception will give many people an illusion. You will know that they are coming later. The state before they come is a state that is not a bull market.
In the end, the money will leave the wrong person and go to the right person.
There are indeed differences in the level of analysis methods, but this is useless because incorrect logic may result in correct results and be correct for several times in a row, while correct logic may be wrong for several times in a row.
Because there are too many variables in the market. One piece of news, a black swan, or one negligence can make you lose everything.
The probability of you losing everything is always greater than the probability of making a fortune.
Buying BTC is a market fact. It has been proven that this is the best coin. It has also been proven that it can be held for a long time, which further proves that BTC is also the easiest coin to make money.
This is not the result of analysis, but a fact conveyed by the market and perceived by us.
People who perceive the facts as unity of knowledge and action will buy crazily, such as MicroStrategy and those of us who hoard coins.
People who misinterpret the facts will think that BTC is expensive, that they make little money from BTC, and that BTC will not make them rich.
Do people who mine BTC for a long time need analytical skills? Do people who hoard coins need analytical skills?
In fact, making money does not require analytical skills. Making money is a process of slowly waiting for the facts to emerge. The reason why they can wait is simply because they have money.
They will also analyze whether BTC will fall or rise, and how much it will rise or fall, but the money they make is not from their analysis.
It's because they just hold on. They analyze and analyze, but they don't operate at all. Of course they know that the money they make is not from analysis.
There is no point in analyzing what will happen after the interest rate cut. If the interest rate is cut and the stock price drops, will you just sell it? If you sell it, what if you can't catch up with the bull market? If it rises a little, you will not sell it. You still want to make more money. There will always be some people who will never sell, and there will always be some people who will only sell for 3 days. Then you just need to see who makes money and learn from them.
