The 50bp rate cut exceeded market expectations and gained hype in the two trading days of the US stock market after the news landed.

But it should be noted that the current market is an emotional market. There is not much bullish momentum at the data level and event level, at least in the short term.

I don’t know whether the market sentiment will continue next week.

From the perspective of the US stock market, if there is no retracement in the next month or so, the subsequent upward momentum will be very exhausted.

I still assume a retracement in October and a rise in the US stock market after the November election. The retracement is about 10 points of the index. Prepare for a 25% upside at the end of the year (November and December). During this retracement, the market will also put pressure on the expectation of a rate cut in November.

Overall, this wave of rate cuts is mild. After the first two rate cuts, the market may become numb to the negative factors of the economy and show a strong bullish sentiment. Funds began to unilaterally capture AI technology giants and the crypto market led by BTC.

From the perspective of US stocks and macroeconomics, this wave of interest rate cuts is more like the situation in 2019 and 1995. Because it is not an Internet bubble, financial crisis, or black swan.

But the trend of BTC will not be like the rate cut rhythm in 2019. Under the premise of a market without black swans, BTC's risk aversion factor is not strong. Under the condition of low liquidity in the market and the lack of strong leaders of liquidity providers in the market, the phenomenon of following the trend of US stocks and running ahead will be very obvious. The divergence phenomenon and the one-sided copycat trend are not persistent.

I am very optimistic about going long on the US stock AI sector and BTC market at the end of the year. Although the probability of Trump's election is not high, it has little impact on macro products such as BTC.

In addition, from a medium-term perspective, Nvidia's growth sustainability will remain strong. The development of large models is still in its early stages. The development of 2D/3D models, video models, and models of the physical world are still in their original state. 交鋶隇：xntm566 These all require computing power as a basis. The interest rate cut in 1995 brought about the explosion of Internet concepts, and the AI ​​financing market and AI stock sector next year will definitely perform better. If OpenAI goes public next year, it is quite possible. It is worth looking forward to the continued emotional stimulation from the capital market. #moonbix #美联储宣布降息50个基点 #美联储宣布降息50个基点 #DODO助力Meme发行