The Federal Reserve this week announced its first rate cut of the Biden era, but it was an uncomfortable moment for Trump. There is no way that cool and collected Fed Chairman Powell would walk into a press conference, declare victory over inflation, then put down the microphone and give the naysayers the middle finger. That is not his style. It is his humble way of saying that our patient approach over the past year has paid off.
- Rate cuts before elections are indeed rare in recent decades
Today, Trump once again blasted the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut.
"This is really a politically motivated move," he said in an interview with the news media. "Most people thought it would only be a 25 basis point cut, and that was probably the right thing to do. So this is a political move to keep someone in office, but it's not going to work because inflation is so bad. They missed the timing, they missed the data. It's either too early or too late. Now they're too early, and they were too late before. Inflation is over."
The Federal Reserve, despite worldwide opposition, cut interest rates significantly just 48 days before the election, which helped Harris' campaign - because the interest rate cut became an economic achievement of the "Biden-Harris" administration.
The Biden administration sees the "rate cut announcement" as a victory for the president's economic agenda. Biden announced after the Fed cut interest rates: We have just reached an important moment where inflation and interest rates are falling, while the economy remains strong.
In a survey conducted after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, 55% of investors believed Harris would be elected, while 45% chose Trump.
There is a rumor on Wall Street that Trump will not reappoint Powell as Fed Chairman and may remove him prematurely, and his only chance of re-election is to please Harris. By voting against, Bowman increased her chances of becoming the next Fed Chair (if Trump is elected). When reporters asked Powell whether there was a political motivation for the 50 basis point rate cut, his answer was almost angry. Powell said that the rate cut may have a limited impact on the presidential election in November, and the impact will be delayed to the economy. "I always ask myself what is the right thing for the people we serve. We don't serve any politicians, any politicians, any causes, or any issues. We only seek maximum employment and price stability for all Americans." From Kennedy to Nixon to Trump, whether they were presidents or now as presidential candidates, every president has put pressure on the Fed. This is a long history. For Trump, the good news is that the excitement brought about by the Fed's rate cut has dissipated for the most part, and European stocks and US stock futures have fallen. If the VIX panic index rises tonight, it means that the market has fully digested the news of the Fed's first rate cut. If the following three things happen next, there is still a chance for a comeback:
The U.S. stock market plummeted;
Inflation has rebounded significantly;
US unemployment rate rises, surpassing 4.4% (breaking the Fed's forecast)
Next, Wall Street speculation will quickly shift to the extent of the next rate cut (November meeting) and the "end rate" (i.e., what level the current rate cut will be). Wall Street banks have different views on the speed and depth of the Fed's rate cuts in the next year. The current market is forming a consensus. As long as your expectations are consistent with the market's future consensus, you will catch a wave of market trends. Now everything will depend on the speed of rate cuts, and the financial market will be uneasy before the clouds clear and the sun shines. #币安上线CATI #美联储宣布降息50个基点 #特朗普首次使用BTC #BTC
