On Friday (September 20), Bitcoin rose to $63,500 in the short term. The Bank of Japan decided to keep interest rates unchanged, and the yen carry trade did not take place, stimulating cryptocurrency buying. Although the whale sold 1,030 bitcoins at high prices, equivalent to about $64.27 million, the US economic data raised expectations of a soft landing of the economy, boosting demand for riskier assets and returning demand for Bitcoin, which is highly linked to the US stock market.

Initial jobless claims in the US fell from 231k (week ended September 7) to 219k (week ended September 14). The unexpected drop in jobless claims is in line with the Federal Reserve's expectations of a soft landing for the US economy, driving demand for riskier assets.

Strong labor market conditions can support wage growth and disposable income, which could boost consumer spending, which accounts for more than 60% of the U.S. economy.

Legendary trader: Yen carry trade could lead to a "financial market disaster"

The Bank of Japan ended its two-day monetary policy review meeting on Friday and announced that it would maintain its short-term interest rate target range of 0.15%-0.25%, a decision in line with market expectations.

The Bank of Japan surprised markets in July by raising its policy rate by 15 basis points to 0.15%-0.25% from a range of 0%-0.1%. The bank also outlined a plan to reduce its outright purchases of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to about 3 trillion yen a month in the first quarter of 2026.

BoJ policy statement excerpt: "The Bank of Japan makes its interest rate decision by unanimous vote. Japan's economy is recovering moderately, although some weaknesses remain. Inflation expectations have risen modestly. Inflation levels are likely to be roughly consistent with the Bank of Japan's price target in the second half of our 3-year forecast period (ending fiscal 2026).

"The trend is for consumption to rise modestly. The Japanese economy may grow beyond its potential. We must be vigilant about the impact of financial and foreign exchange market trends on the Japanese economy and prices. Foreign exchange fluctuations have a greater impact on prices than in the past. Exports and output are moving sideways."

Legendary trader and BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes gave a speech at the cryptocurrency TOKEN 2049 conference which took place on Thursday Beijing time. He warned that the Fed's launch of a rate cut cycle will lead to the return of yen carry trades to the market, which will in turn damage the U.S. stock market, Nasdaq, S&P 500 index, and even real estate and U.S. Treasuries.

“Before I talk about cryptocurrencies, I want to express my opinion that I think the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates in the face of the current increased intervention by the US government is a huge mistake. I think the market will collapse within a few days of the Fed’s rate cut because it will narrow the interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Japanese yen. We saw a few weeks ago that the yen fell from 162 to 142 in about 14 days of trading, almost triggering a small financial collapse. Now, the Fed and the market expect them to continue to cut interest rates very quickly, and we will see similar financial pressures again.”

Bitcoin whale sells more than 1,030 Bitcoins

The latest sell-off by the Bitcoin whale has attracted market attention because it occurred during a period when the price of Bitcoin rose to $63,000. It is worth noting that according to data from Lookonchain, a leading on-chain transaction tracker, the big investor sold 1,030 Bitcoins, worth about $64.27 million, to break even. In other words, the whale took advantage of the recent surge in the price of cryptocurrencies, a strategy often used by investors.

However, the report also shows that the whale is no stranger to this type of large transfer. Between March and May, the whale withdrew 5,404 bitcoins worth approximately $352.97 million from Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange. It is worth noting that the value of the cryptocurrency during the withdrawal was $65,318.

Meanwhile, the whale has sold 4,856 bitcoins worth about $317.87 million at an average price of $65,459 since May. That said, the recent Bitcoin sell-off has once again sparked speculation about the whale’s potential strategy behind the move and its impact on the overall market trend.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

CoinGape said that historically, Bitcoin prices tend to perform weakly, but this year seems to be different. As of September, Bitcoin has risen by nearly 8% at current prices, indicating that traders are increasingly confident in cryptocurrencies. The recent sell-off by Bitcoin whales also seems to have failed to affect the broader market sentiment, as evidenced by the recent performance.

At the same time, open interest in Bitcoin futures jumped 10% to $34.83 billion, indicating a surge in traders' willingness to take risky bets. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point rate cut at its latest FOMC meeting, boosting traders' sentiment and driving Bitcoin prices higher.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price prediction suggests that Bitcoin could end the month at a high of $73,776 amid a positive market trend. Furthermore, the forecast suggests that Bitcoin could rise to a new high of nearly $86,000 in a “classic October rally.”