After four years, the Fed started a rate cut cycle again, with the first rate cut starting at 50bps. The market briefly rose and then fell, and finally the basic market stabilized due to Powell's speech half an hour after the rate cut data was released. Overall, the news landed with unexpected positives, that is, the decline exceeded expectations, and Powell gave the market confidence that there is no recession at present, and also gave the expectation of two 25 basis point rate cuts within the year.
However, judging from the published dot plot and Powell's description of interest rates, there is no logic for continuous interest rate cuts at present. The purpose of the Fed's early defensive interest rate cut is to prevent potential market economic risks that may arise in the future, but if the economic environment can stabilize and slow down, long-term interest rate stagnation cannot be ruled out next year. For the crypto market, a single interest rate cut will not bring too much benefit, but it will give us enough visual future.
So whether the interest rate cuts this time have anything to do with us depends on whether we are still there when the market rises after liquidity is finally eased. The six months from March to September were very painful for most of the veterans in the industry. Many people lamented that they survived the deep bear market last year, but eventually died in the bull market and ended on the eve of the big bull market.
In terms of macro data, yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of 52.83 million US dollars, and Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of 9.74 million US dollars. The outflow occurred before the announcement of the interest rate cut, and the overall rebound of the market occurred after Powell's speech. If the expectations are not bad, the ETF data should start to pick up from today.
I haven't checked the chips for a long time. Today, I took a quick look after some altcoins soared in the short term. Some long-held altcoins continued to return to above the cost, and a small number of those who made arrangements at the beginning of the month got good results. The current altcoin market has clearly given us the feeling of the arrival of the altcoin season. The core sign is the three-day two-fold pull-up. The only flaw is that the number of skyrocketing coins is not enough. This is expected to come after the recent bullish sentiment eases and the next round of high-point sprint after the big cake retreats.
Don't be affected by the short-term bullish rebound sentiment. To sum up: the market always moves in the direction of everyone's expectations. No matter how many twists and turns there are in the middle, the trend and influence of the cycle remain unchanged. The moment when you can really rush with your eyes closed has not come. After a short rebound, there will inevitably be a new round of downward cleaning.
BTC: The high point of Bitcoin's daily rebound this time is expected to be around 67,000 points. Both the four-hour and daily lines have temporarily shown a small-level breakthrough tendency. The key point is still what everyone needs to pay attention to. The market has not reversed. I tend to have another round of retracement below 60,000 points before the reversal, and this bullish sentiment will not last too long, so it is appropriate to hold positions in the band this time. From the last 58,000 points, if it can go above 67,000 points, then the strength of this round of big cake is also OK. Short-term operations focus on the small support of 61,000 points. Above this, there is a trend to 67,000 points. If the support band is broken, it will have to run away. Comprehensively speaking, we will continue to look at the small-level rebound market.
ETH: The Ethereum exchange rate has rebounded a bit, and the price of the currency has also risen slightly. Let's observe the market outlook.
COMP: With a small focus, the daily trend is still there.
SATS: The bottom of the daily trend. If we maintain this position, there will be another small daily market trend.
The Fear and Greed Index is 49 during the day.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! #token2049 #加密市场反弹 #美联储宣布降息50个基点 $BTC
