Macroeconomic perspective: The Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point rate cut yesterday as expected by the market. After this move, the US stock market adjusted rapidly, while BTC showed unique resilience and rose against the trend, and the market capital flow showed a differentiated trend. The rate cut did not widely trigger the market's panic about economic recession, reflecting that investors' assessment of risky assets has become more complicated.

Policy interpretation and future outlook: In a subsequent press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized the need to control recession expectations, pointed out the current situation of a solid labor market and easing inflation, while warning that cutting interest rates too quickly could hinder further declines in inflation.

The FOMC dot plot reveals that two more interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each are expected in the coming year, and the neutral interest rate level (about 3%) may be maintained in the end, sending a positive signal that the US economy continues to be stable and will avoid recession in the short term.

ETF market dynamics: On September 19, the U.S. Big Bread spot ETF suffered a net outflow of $52.83 million, and the Big Two Bread ETF also suffered a net outflow of $9.74 million.

It is worth noting that BlackRock's latest report pointed out that its clients are viewing BTC as a hedging tool against the US debt crisis. Despite its risky attributes, BTC's scarcity, globalization and cross-border payment convenience make it a potential option for reserve assets, especially in the context of high US debt (reaching US$35 trillion and an annual budget deficit of US$2 trillion).

Highlights in the stablecoin field: Tether's second quarter audit report shows that its reserves exceed $118.4 billion, exceeding liabilities of $5.3 billion, of which U.S. Treasury bonds account for more than 90%, ranking it as the 18th largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds in the world, surpassing many governments. Although the stability of USDT and its new high market share provide investors with short-term peace of mind, long-term large positions still need to be held with caution.

Technological innovation and competitive landscape: BNB Chain’s gas-free stablecoin payment plan focuses on USDT, USDC and FDUSD, aiming to improve payment efficiency and reduce costs. This move may pose a potential fundamental challenge to ETH.

Analysis of the trend of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH): The 30-day average supply of BTC short-term holders has dropped to the level of 2012, indicating that there are more long-term holders, but the growth of short-term holdings is crucial to the bull market. BTC is currently facing a pressure level near 64,000, and an effective breakthrough is required to confirm the upward trend. Market demand needs to be further boosted. ETH continues to be weak, the exchange rate diverges, and waits for an oversold rebound opportunity. ➕👗➩BNB0098

Shanzhai Market Dynamics: Although most Shanzhai stocks are showing an upward trend, few have truly rebounded strongly from the bottom. Projects with strong fundamentals such as SUI, TIA, PENDLE, and SEI have performed outstandingly, bringing profits to bottom-layout investors. Whether the future market can continue, we need to pay close attention to the sustainability of capital enthusiasm.

Market data observation: Bitfinex's main long positions increased slightly, the Fear and Greed Index remained at 49, and market sentiment tended to be cautiously optimistic.

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