According to the latest dot plot,

1. Most FOMC members believe that in 2024, the interest rate will remain between 5% and 5.25%, which is the current interest rate. The dot plot predicts that there may be no subsequent interest rate cuts in 2024.

2. The interest rate in 2025 will remain between 3.75% and 4.25%, and the interest rate cut plan for 25 years is about 100 basis points.

3. The interest rate will further drop to the range of 2.75%-3.25 in 2026, and the interest rate will be cut by 100 basis points again in 26 years.

4. The interest rate will be maintained at around 2.75%-3% in 2027.

5. The long-term interest rate target is around 2.5%-3%.

To be honest, this dot plot is not too optimistic. If the current dot plot is expected, the first interest rate cut of 50 basis points in September will be the only interest rate cut in 2024, and the Fed's interest rate cut plan will last until about 26 years, and the entire 25 years will still be in a high interest rate environment.

There was a 50 basis point rate cut before, but the dot plot did not show any subsequent rate cut plans for 2024. It really feels a bit deliberately hawkish.

In order to prevent the market from expecting a faster rate cut by the Fed, the dot plot was directly used to be hawkish, affecting market expectations. At the same time, after finishing Xuancheng, although I have entered a few dollar cycles, I still have to continue to maintain high interest rates for a long time.

Judging from the current performance, I think it is a bit strong on the outside but weak on the inside, and it is deliberately hawkish.

As for the subsequent rate cut plan, this period of the dot plot is not absolute. After all, there have been many reversals of dot plot expectations this year. Although the dot plot shows that there is no subsequent rate cut plan this year, the market will not so easily give up the expectation of a rate cut in November and December. #新币挖矿CATI #美国8月零售销售环比好于预期 #美联储宣布降息50个基点 #新币挖矿HMSTR #币安上线NEIRO