A 50 basis point rate cut is beyond expectations. I have repeatedly emphasized this point in the past few days.

Don't look at how much the rate cut is, look at the continuity. This rate cut is more like a test.

All financial derivatives have returned to the level before the rate cut after hitting the high point.

It also shows that the market's expectations for this rate cut have actually been worn away.

This is what I said before. The market speculation on the Fed's rate cut expectations began in October last year.

So the price has been rising all the way, reaching its peak in March this year (except for gold, Chinese aunts are awesome).

Powell's press conference this time elaborated on two key points and a potential message.

The potential message is that this 50 basis point rate cut was led by Powell, and the purpose was to test the market's quality and whether it can accept the changes brought about by this rate cut.

Key point 1: Powell means , Don't think that the 50 basis point rate cut this time means what will happen in December or next year. Everything depends on data. If the unemployment rate continues to rise, the rate will be cut in advance, otherwise it will not. As long as the labor market is strong, the rate will not be cut all the time.

Key point 2: The Fed is still shrinking its balance sheet. In other words, it is paying off US debts. Balance sheet shrinkage is not conducive to rate cuts. I don't know if I understand this correctly, because paying off US debts means printing new money. A lot of money flows into the market, but it can't be taken back. The Fed is trapped in the vicious circle of rising inflation again.

In summary, I think the expectation of this rate cut has been smoothed by the market. The next market will depend on various data, among which non-agricultural data is the key point.

In addition, I don't know if my short position can reach the other side [lightly]

No matter, I'll get in first and then find a way