The US Federal Reserve has cut the interest rate by 0.5 percentage points at once.
This is an indication that the US economy is experiencing significant problems and that action needs to be taken.
Not the best backdrop for risk markets. But#BTCresponded with momentum up.
Let's look at the main points of the speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.
In short, there are many reassuring statements about how everything is under control and going as it should:
- Today's interest rate decision is a good start for the Fed to begin easing its monetary policy. There is broad support among Fed members today for a 0.5 percentage point rate cut.
- I don't think we are behind schedule. The 0.5 percentage point rate cut is an attempt to catch up or a change in the pace of the Fed's monetary easing.
- Inflation has dropped significantly, but remains above our target. Our patient approach has paid dividends, and inflation is much closer to our target.
- Long-term inflation expectations look well anchored.
- The economy is strong overall. We want to keep the U.S. economy strong.
- Upside risks to inflation have diminished, while downside risks to the labor market have increased.
- The labor market has cooled down from its previous overheated state. It continues to cool down, which is a noticeable step forward compared to the beginning of this year. The labor market is stable, we intend to maintain this.
- Our decision reflects growing confidence that strength in the labour market can be maintained.
- The Fed can support labor force growth by adjusting its policies.
- The labor market is not a source of increased inflationary pressure.
- If the labor market worsens, we will be able to respond.
- Consumer spending remained resilient.
- Our forecasts show that GDP growth will remain sustainable.
- Retail sales and GDP for the second quarter point to sustainable economic growth - this will also support the labor market.
- The Fed was very patient, other global central banks started cutting rates earlier.
- If the economy remains stable and inflation persists, we will be able to ease policy more slowly.
- Our forecasts are not a plan or a decision. We will adjust policy as needed depending on incoming macro data.
- No one should look at today and think that this is a new pace.
- We are not yet declaring victory over inflation.
- We could have cut the rate in July if we had had employment data at that time.
- It is clear that labor market conditions have cooled, but the level of conditions is quite close to maximum employment.
- There is no need for further cooling of the labor market to reduce inflation to 2%.
- Inflation in the housing market is one of the factors that slows down the process a little.
Key points from the US Federal Reserve's accompanying letter to its decision:
- Inflation is steadily moving towards the target of 2%.
- We will carefully evaluate incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks when considering additional rate adjustments.
- Economic activity continues to grow at a steady pace.
- Job growth has slowed. The unemployment rate has risen but remains low.
- The risks to the Fed's dual mandate are balanced (inflation and labor market).
- The Fed's further monetary policy depends on incoming macro data.
- The Fed will continue to reduce its balance sheet (QT).
- The Fed expects two more rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points this year.
- The forecast for the Fed rate by the end of 2024 is 3.4%.
- The inflation forecast by the end of 2024 is 2.3% (previously 2.6%).
- GDP forecast by the end of 2024 is 2% (previously 2.1%).
- The unemployment forecast by the end of 2024 is 4.4% (previously 4%).
Much has been said to calm the markets. Let's see if it helps.
The BTC rate on the Fed decision and related statements eventually reached $61,318. It did not rewrite yesterday's high of $61,320. The idea with a five-wave structure and the beginning of a correction is in force. The chart movements for yesterday and today can be considered as waves A and B in the ABC correction. This would be good news for the bulls, because the expected low of wave A is set quite high, in the area of the volume level of $59,335. But in wave C (which is likely to start), the asset is expected to decline below this level. And a move to at least $57,709.
We are not changing the correction waveform yet, we will observe. The market is still stormy after the event.