Last night, BTC surged to celebrate the Mid-Autumn Festival, which really felt like "to da moon". The crypto community ushered in a long-awaited "carnival", with Bitcoin rising by more than 6% overnight, reaching a high of $61,337, the largest increase since August 8. The reason behind this is generally believed by the market to be related to the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut.
There may be larger fluctuations in the early hours of this morning!
The big suspense of the Federal Reserve is about to be revealed, everyone fasten your seat belts!
The Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Beijing time on September 19. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at this meeting.
Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, the last major economic data, the U.S. retail sales data for August, is known as terrifying data because retail sales represent U.S. consumption, and consumption accounts for 70% of the U.S. GDP. Once the retail sales data explodes, the Federal Reserve will inevitably cut interest rates significantly.
But there was good news last night. Retail sales data increased by 0.1% month-on-month, which was better than the market's expectation of a 0.2% decline. Although it is still declining compared to last month's 1%, it is already a shot in the arm for the market.
So the Fed can advance or retreat tonight, it can cut by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. The market expects that the probability of the Fed cutting by 25 basis points is 37%, and the probability of cutting by 50 basis points is 63%.
Although there is controversy in the market about the extent of the rate cut, that is, whether it will be a 25 basis point or a 50 basis point cut, the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates for the first time since March 2020, thus opening the curtain on the rate cut cycle. The first rate cut is more symbolic than practical, marking the beginning of the Fed's rate cut cycle.
Today's market analysis:
$BTC is currently on the bullish side at all levels. Today, pay attention to the support level below the small-level correction near 60275-59830-59270. As long as the 4-hour level closing does not fall below 59270, the small-level insertion will still go up!
If the market continues to rise today, the upper targets/pressure levels will be around 61140-62045-62980!
The interest rate decision will be announced on Thursday this week, and the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision will be announced on Friday. These decisions will affect the market trends at the macro level, so everyone must pay close attention when operating transactions.
The two biggest key factors of the bull market:
The first is the influx of a large amount of funds, and the second is a powerful narrative to take over. Both are indispensable!
This round of the market is actually quite awkward. It is not like Defi in 2020 and Gamefi in 2021, which have new narratives to attract external funds. Once there is no narrative relay, Meme is the best narrative, because the market has no new carriers, and meme, a pure value consensus model, is forced to become a liquidity carrier;
I said before that a possible path is that external funds pile these meme coins to a certain height, resulting in a lack of heat and the market has to accept the mainstreaming of MEME in the short term!
The exchanges only look at the popularity and market reaction, so Binance’s move is not surprising. What He Yi said makes sense. Under such popularity, highly valued VCs are just making money, so it’s not too much to just find some undervalued ones to test the waters!
Inventory of MEME coins listed on BN in this cycle:
Solona Ecosystem: Bonk, WIF, BOME
Ethereum ecosystem: PEPE, Floki, meme, Turbo, Babydoge, Neiro
BTC Ecosystem: ORDI, SATS
TON Ecosystem: Banana, DOGS, CATI, NMSTR
Today, bn announced the listing of 3 MEME coins: TURBO, Babydoge, and Neiro
These three MEME coins all come from the Ethereum ecosystem, among which Babydoge is issued by the Ethereum and bnb dual chains and is an old coin from the previous cycle.
Turbo and Neiro are both new coins generated in this cycle.
Neiro has surged 20 times in two days and is the meme with the smallest market value on bn. First, the uppercase dog contract fud and lowercase dog were listed to collect chips, and then the lowercase dog was listed to pull the market to make bn rich. bn indicated that in the future, it will focus on listing memes with small market value and dispersed chips. Memes are the main line of this bull market.
Although the development of the Ethereum ecosystem has not seen much improvement in this cycle, it has passed the spot ETF, which is a reliable channel for capital inflow. In the second half of this bull market, ETH is expected to explode. After all, the Ethereum ecosystem had a very good MEME coin player circle and NFT player circle in the last cycle.
When interest rates start to cut, new funds will flow into the market, but if there is no cut, the currency price may plunge in the short term, so pay attention to the risks!
