Future Outlook: Pay attention to several important events next
1. Will the interest rate be cut at the September 18 meeting? Will the base rate be 25% or 50%?
2. Will CZ come out on September 29?
Regarding copycats, the strong will always be strong. When Bitcoin returns to 75,000, many copycats may not be able to return to their previous highs, but some will continue to be strong.
Ethereum is still a weak currency, don’t touch it, wait until the exchange rate stabilizes before considering it. Don’t think about buying it for a rise.
Just wait until the trend from macro tightening to easing becomes clearer and the impact of interest rate cuts becomes clearer.
The market still needs BTC to wash out some chips, that is, to oscillate again, and then form a new consensus and emotional basis at a new position.
Then wait for the stimulation of positive sentiment, drive the stimulation of liquidity, and pay attention to the actions of long-term holders. At the same time, there is also the trend of BTC prices.
When will the bull market come?
163 days after the halving of BTC mining output in 2016, long-term holders on the chain started a bull market distribution
163 days after the 2020 BTC mining output halved, long-term holders on the chain started a bull market distribution.
149 days have passed since the 24-year BTC mining output halving
The indicator in the figure is the percentage of the total number of chips held by long-term holders on the chain. The red line is the ⟨13-17 years⟩ segment of the indicator; the blue line is the ⟨17-21 years⟩ segment of the indicator; the black line is the ⟨21 years-to-now⟩ segment of the indicator. The three lines align the halving day of BTC mining output in each cycle.
Note: The long-term coin holders on the chain refer to BTC that has not been moved on the chain for more than 155 days (the time is calculated from the last movement of BTC on the chain).
The BTC ecosystem is currently worthy of attention. The reason is very simple. The performance of mainstream currencies such as ETH has been lukewarm this year. Also, the BTC ecosystem was developed in this round of bull market. It has the bloodline of Bitcoin and can be directly linked to BTC. The ecosystem is also developing, which is in line with the characteristics of the currency circle that new currencies are not speculated on.
In addition, BTC itself has its own traffic, and inscriptions, runes, etc. are also part of the BTC traffic that can be digested. Therefore, the second half may be the explosion of the BTC ecosystem.
According to the logic of the sector, the BTC ecological sector is a key sector to buy:
1- In the minds of users, the Bitcoin ecosystem is already closely connected with BTC. When the BTC market comes, the Bitcoin ecosystem will surely rise.
2- It is similar to the previous round of Defi. After experiencing the summer market in 2020, Defi experienced a wash-out and then experienced another big market in 2021.
3- The market capitalization is generally very low. Dragon ORDI and SATS only have 600 million US dollars and are in full circulation. In comparison, the Arb that everyone has been criticizing has a circulation market capitalization of 1.8 billion US dollars and Fdv5.3 billion. OP has a circulation of 1.8 billion US dollars and Fdv6.6 billion US dollars. And the leader of Inscription is also far lower than MEME coin, PEPE is 3.2 billion, and WIF is 1.8 billion US dollars.
4- Inscriptions are 100% circulated. Now the market has a resistance to the continuous release of coins. At least in the initial stage of the market, funds prefer inscriptions like MeMe. Only when the market reaches a certain stage and funds begin to overflow from the sector, other coins will start to have some market. However, it can be boldly predicted here that many coins with low circulation and high FDV will not return to their highs even if a big bull market comes.
5- The inscription section also meets the plus point of the section: it can issue a large amount of assets, generate a benefit effect, and constantly create new topics
Pay attention to the BTC ecological project:
1. In terms of targets, the leaders in the track, Ordi and SATs are competing with each other. As a project listed on Binance, its liquidity can support large funds and it is undoubtedly a target that must be configured.
2、pizza：
Pizza, as one of the symbols of BTC, is also strongly supported by the Unisat wallet.
3. Rats is also a project that receives a lot of attention.
I have done on-chain chip analysis on the above four coins. I have found signs of capital accumulation. From a logical point of view, ordi and sats have higher certainty. Pizza and rats may have a higher critical hit rate.
In addition, CKB has a market value of 600 million US dollars and is almost fully circulated, which is neither cheap nor expensive. Then, CKB, which was just hyped in April, has a large number of locked-in orders on the top, which will take time to consume. Or there will be a big benefit effect. Therefore, it is worth paying close attention.
