At 2 o'clock tonight, the Fed's interest rate cut shoes fell, and there are mainly three possibilities:

1. The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 65%. If so, the market will rise sharply;

2. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 35%. If so, it will fall first and then rise, but the increase will be limited;

3. The probability of no rate cut or rate hike is zero. If the possibility comes true, then a sharp drop will follow;

At present, the mainstream market has basically confirmed that this rate cut is a foregone conclusion, it is just a matter of how much the rate cut will be; what needs to be focused on is what Fed Chairman Powell will say at the press conference, especially how to describe the Fed's policy in the future. There are 2 more meetings this year:

The 7th interest rate meeting: November 12-13, 2024

The 8th interest rate meeting: December 18-19, 2024

It has been said in the past few days that the bull market is now in a state where everything is ready except for the east wind, and it depends on how strong the east wind blows.

Take a survey, how do you think the market will go tonight?