The storm before the interest rate meeting
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 a.m.
Nick Timiraos of the "New Fed News Agency" has published another article. This may be his last article before the Fed's decision. Judging from the title "The Fed is ready to cut interest rates, and the extent of the first rate cut is in doubt", the "extent of the first rate cut" is still uncertain.
1. If this article was written at the behest of the Federal Reserve, then there is a high probability that the interest rate will be cut by 50 basis points.
Here are the reasons:
First, the article mentioned "50 basis points" more times than before, and quoted former Federal Reserve senior adviser English and Dallas Fed President Kaplan's views on a 50 basis point rate cut.
Second, the article says a very crucial sentence: "Powell may face internal opposition. In the past two years, no Fed official has voted against a policy decision." What will be opposed this time? If the interest rate is cut by 25 basis points, it can be accepted by all Fed officials, but some people prefer 50 basis points. But if the interest rate is cut by 50 basis points, there will be dissenting votes.
Perhaps the Fed is still arguing with each other, and Powell himself prefers a 50 basis point rate cut, but from a political point of view, a 50 basis point rate cut may be more serious than a 25 basis point rate cut.
Powell may wait until everyone is tired of arguing and build a reasonable consensus
Many people want to know if there will be another bull market in this cycle, when it will come, and in what form.
I think the key event that brought about the altcoin bull market is, (note, it is altcoin, in theory Bitcoin is already in a bull market, and the price has increased significantly compared to the beginning of the year)
It is not the launch of those VC projects with large financing, nor the crazy launch of meme projects by Binance, and don’t expect any so-called mass adoption projects to suddenly appear.
In fact, the arrival of a bull market is only related to the enthusiasm of the funds entering the market. If the funds entering the market are greater than the funds leaving the market, the market will rise, otherwise, it will fall. Even the aunties on the street know this. The others are nothing more than finding some reasons for the funds to enter and exit, just to make the funds look like fools.
A bull market cycle often requires a large influx of funds, and secondly, a strong narrative to follow up. Both are indispensable!
This round of the market is actually quite awkward. It is not like Defi in 2020 and Gamefi in 2021, which have new narratives to attract external funds. Once there is no narrative relay, Meme is the best narrative, because the market has no new carriers, and meme, a pure value consensus model, is forced to become a liquidity carrier;
I said before that a possible path is that external funds pile these meme coins to a certain height, resulting in a lack of heat and the market has to accept the mainstreaming of MEME in the short term!
The exchanges only look at the popularity and market reaction, so Binance’s move is not surprising. What He Yi said makes sense. Under such popularity, highly valued VCs are just making money, so it’s not too much to just find some undervalued ones to test the waters!
