The interest rate decision will be announced at 2 a.m. this Thursday, and the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision will be announced on Friday. These decisions will affect the market trends at the macro level, so everyone must pay close attention when operating transactions.
Bitcoin 4 has undergone 5 months of adjustment, and a 4-hour trend is currently taking shape. If there is no major negative news in the future, it will gradually rise.
Later, we will focus on the position of 62500, which is the 120-day moving average position. If this position is stable, the upward trend at the daily level will start again.
Will there be another copycat bull market in this cycle? When will it come and in what form?
I think the key event that brings about the bull market of altcoins (note, it is altcoins. In theory, Bitcoin is already in a bull market, and the price has increased greatly compared to the beginning of the year) is neither the launch of VC projects with large financing, nor the crazy launch of meme projects by Binance, and don’t expect any so-called mass adoption projects to suddenly appear. In fact, the arrival of a bull market is only related to the enthusiasm of the funds entering the market.
If the entry funds are greater than the exit funds, the price will go up, otherwise, it will go down, and even the aunties on the street know this truth. The others are nothing more than finding some reasons for the inflow and outflow of funds to make it seem like the funds are not stupid.
The event that is really worthy of everyone's attention and waiting may be Uniswap, which has been unknown in the corner recently. Whether its governance token Uni dividend will be approved by the SEC will determine whether the copycat bull market will come.
Some people may have noticed recently that some tokens such as BNB, PENDLE, AAVE, etc., which are supported by real project income, have performed very well in the past year. This shows that the market will not miss out on truly high-quality projects, and the commercial essence of traditional business practiced for thousands of years is also correct as truth.
So what about the timing?
It is not easy to change the SEC's policies, at least not before the November election, which means there will be no bull market before November. As for after November, it depends on whether Trump can be elected and whether he can replace the current SEC chairman with someone who likes crypto. Even if Trump is elected, it will take time to pass relevant bills. In other words, in the next three to six months, everyone needs to tighten their belts and hold on. At most, Bitcoin will rise alone to drive up altcoins.
At 2 a.m. tonight, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and Chairman Powell will hold a press conference afterwards!
The market is concerned about whether the interest rate will be cut by 25 basis points or 50 basis points!
But the interest rate cut is basically safe and there will be no surprises. Judging from the current news, people are looking forward to a 50 basis point rate cut. Anyway, we should make strategies for both possibilities. A 25 basis point rate cut should have been anticipated and released by the market long ago. The market may tend to rise slightly and then fluctuate and fall.
I think a 50 basis point rate cut will lead to a big rise, but a surge of more than 12% is also very difficult.
Countermeasures:
1. If Powell acts like a "brave man" and cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, the probability of a soft landing will increase greatly. We can be optimistic about risky assets such as US stocks and BTC; we can go long on all fronts! The alt season will officially start in October!
2. If Powell is still timid and cuts the rate by 25 basis points and looks at the data in the rearview mirror, then the U.S. stock market and BTC will still have a lot of troubles, and the seasonal correction law will take effect again. We can only wait until November and trade the Santa rally market.
The two biggest key factors of the bull market:
The first is the influx of a large amount of funds, and the second is a powerful narrative to take over. Both are indispensable!
This round of the market is actually quite awkward. It is not like Defi in 2020 and Gamefi in 2021, which have new narratives to attract external funds. Once there is no narrative relay, Meme is the best narrative, because the market has no new carriers, and meme, a pure value consensus model, is forced to become a liquidity carrier;
I said before that a possible path is that external funds pile these meme coins to a certain height, resulting in a lack of heat and the market has to accept the mainstreaming of MEME in the short term!
The exchanges only look at the popularity and market reaction, so Binance’s move is not surprising. What He Yi said makes sense. Under such popularity, highly valued VCs are just making money, so it’s not too much to just find some undervalued ones to test the waters!
