The big suspense of the Federal Reserve is about to be revealed

The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 a.m.

Nick Timiraos of the "New Fed News Agency" has published another article. This may be his last article before the Fed's decision. Judging from the title "The Fed is ready to cut interest rates, and the extent of the first rate cut is in doubt", the "extent of the first rate cut" is still undecided. 1. If this article was written at the behest of the Fed, then there is a high probability that the interest rate will be cut by 50 basis points.

The reasons are as follows: First, the article mentioned "50 basis points" more times than before, and quoted the views of former Fed senior adviser English and Dallas Fed President Kaplan on a 50 basis point rate cut. Second, the article said a very critical sentence "Powell may face internal opposition. In the past two years, no Fed official has voted against the policy decision" - what will be opposed this time? If the interest rate is cut by 25 basis points, it can be accepted by all Fed officials, but some people prefer 50 basis points. But if the interest rate is cut by 50 basis points, there will be dissenting votes. 2. If it is only the author's own analysis, then there is a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut - because the Fed has remained silent until this moment, and only a "25 basis point rate cut" can make the Fed have the need to remain silent. Revealing the "25 basis point rate cut" at this moment is far from waiting until the last minute to announce it. Because after the announcement at 2:00 a.m. on Thursday, there will be a Powell press conference half an hour later, when some "dovish" remarks can be made to appease the market. If the Fed is still arguing with each other, Powell himself is inclined to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, but from a political point of view, a decision-making error of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points may be more serious than a decision-making error of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points. Powell may wait until everyone is tired of arguing and build a reasonable consensus. #BTC #ETH #美联储利率决议公布在即 #加密市场反弹