Is the market already in the second half of the bull market?

This cycle is likely to be a double-top or triple-top prediction:

If there is no recession before the US election, then this may be a double-top structure, and the second top may be when the money is released, which may be in 2025 or 2026, the second top of this cycle.

The triple-top situation is that if the US economy declines before the US election, then the first top is likely to be the approval of spot ETFs, the second top is the US election, and the third top is the money release. These three top cycles or double-top cycles correspond to the positions that I may expect to reach highs and lows in the industry.

The first position is ETF and or the US election. My views are all around the cycle. The US election may be the best stage for stimulating the entire risk market since 2024. This cycle is the first two months and the last two months.

Looking further down, we need to look at a problem with the US economy. If the US economy still does not experience any recession during this period, the Federal Reserve will be willing to continue to cut interest rates, the US economy will remain balanced, and the unemployment rate will remain at a low level. This is a positive for the entire risk market.

If the next batch of money is really released, and the cycle of money release is in line with 2026, then the next rising cycle may be in the middle and late stages of the end of 2026, which may be a better opportunity.