Earlier, Wall Street Journal reporter Nick expressed a view through Twitter that the Federal Reserve should consider implementing a 50 basis point interest rate cut instead of the traditional 25 basis points. Now, this view has received more weighty support and formed a wider resonance.
Greg, the chief economic commentator of the Wall Street Journal, a figure with a pivotal position in the financial community, also publicly spoke out and clearly called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. This call was quickly forwarded by many media and attracted widespread attention in the market. Affected by this, the market's expected probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points has significantly increased from the previous 50% to 60%.
Greg pointed out in the article that the Fed should consider cutting interest rates as early as July. He criticized the Federal Reserve for basing the entire process of raising interest rates on a false assumption that U.S. inflation would remain at a high of 3%. However, real-life data gives a different answer.
The U.S. PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) has dropped to 2.7%, while global oil prices, copper prices, and commodity prices are all experiencing declines. This indicates that future inflation may not only fall below 2%, but may even be lower than the target set by the Federal Reserve. Under the current high interest rate background of 5.25% in the United States, minus the 2% inflation rate, the real interest rate is still as high as over 3%, which is an unbearable burden for the economy.
Greg further warned that excessively high interest rates may lead the U.S. economy into recession, and the current employment data is also declining and has returned to pre-epidemic levels, but this recovery momentum may be threatened by high interest rates. He made a direct appeal to the Fed: If you cut rates by 50 basis points and find that you cut rates too much, you can easily correct that mistake by stopping the rate cuts. But if you only cut interest rates by 25 basis points and the economy goes into recession, then the Fed cannot afford this responsibility. #币安上线NEIRO #新币挖矿HMSTR #美国大选如何影响加密产业? #美联储利率决议公布在即 #加密市场急跌 $BTC $ETH