BTC Dominance - Is It Ever Going Down?

BTC Dominance - Is It Going To Decline At All? Revisiting the Chart After Cycle High Update.

Before we analyze the picture of this cycle, we want to show an interesting picture on the weekly TF from 2018. And - again by waves. From January 2018 and from 35.41%, an impulse five-wave structure started, which ended in December 2020 with growth to 73.63%.

Then with the altseason of the last cycle, the dominance began to decline. And the locus of wave A 38.84% was set by the end of the bear market, in September 2022. The entire rebound of wave B occurred in the bull market of the new cycle and this is logical - after all,#BTCis the flagship of the crypto market. First, it must show growth. And absorb the available liquidity.

Is the rebound high set in wave B? If not, then this is probably a question of the very near future. This is evident, of course, not from the wave 5 high (there is a power reserve of almost 73%), but from the nature of the chart movement somewhere since October 2023. The growth is steadily encountering resistance and no longer shows significant impulses.

Wave C should be below wave A. That is, below 38.84%. We are targeting the 37% region. And this will probably be a decline stretched out over most of 2025.

What is the picture locally in this cycle? We have not analyzed it since the beginning of August. And the growth of dominance since then has invalidated the version that the fifth wave of growth of dominance in this cycle ended in the spring of 2024 and an ABC correction is underway. The fifth wave in the cycle has not yet ended.

In the short term, we expect a correction of#BTCdominance, because locally since April, the chart has undergone an ABC correction and a new five-wave structure has formed, locally the dominance is already in the fifth wave. This growth has been going on since the end of May and we believe that the ABC correction of dominance will begin literally tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. So if the end of the fifth wave is confirmed, dominance should "give a breather" to altcoins for at least a month.

BUT if we take into account that#BTChas not yet shown a bull run (and assume that it will) - there is a possibility that after the overdue correction there will be an update of the dominance of the cycle high.

Therefore, the basic expectation is as shown on the chart. Correction with a test of the ascending trend from January 14, 2024 and further - a move to the volume level of 59.38% and, possibly, higher. But we consider this future local five-wave pattern to be the final growth of dominance in the cycle. Simply because we expect that the altseason will be. Its beginning has been delayed, but not cancelled.