| A 50 basis point rate cut would be the most bullish scenario for stocks in the short term, but only if the Fed can convince investors that this isn't a forced, drastic rate cut out of fear of a recession.

- This is the most uncertain market about the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting since 2007, and Wall Street traders are already lying in the center of the storm.

The first trading day without Chinese investors was also the last quiet day Wall Street traders could enjoy:

1. The market's probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points has reached 61% (it was around 50% last Friday), and the balance of risk has tilted in favor of a 50 basis point rate cut.

2. The probability of a rate cut has substantially increased, but it has not led to a substantial rise in the market. Gold rose only $4 on Monday, while the Nasdaq fell 0.52% (the other two major US stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.55% and the S&P 500 up 0.13%). The market's strange reaction should be noted, even if the Fed announces a 50 basis point rate cut, it may be regarded as "bad news."

3. Our exclusive "Fear and Greed Index" shows that after the close of Monday, the RMB, FTSE China A50 Index, Nasdaq Index, gold, silver and crude oil all showed abnormal signals.

4. Calls for a substantial interest rate cut are overwhelming:

Former New York Fed President Dudley said on Monday that (as I pointed out last Friday) the Fed should now make a "big move" and the logic of a 50 basis point rate cut is more convincing, and I believe they will do so.

Three Democratic senators urged Powell in a letter calling for large rate cuts, including a 75 basis point reduction this week.

"It is clear that now is the time for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates," the senators wrote. "In fact, it may be too late, and your delay has already threatened the economy and put the Federal Reserve behind the times. If the Federal Reserve is too cautious in cutting interest rates, it will unnecessarily put our economy at risk of a recession."

It is not new for lawmakers to write to Powell to take action. In the past, we have not seen any public response from the Fed, but this time is different. A Fed spokesman said that we have received the letter and plan to respond.

5. The Fed has not released any news through the news media, which may indicate that it has not yet reached a consensus. The August retail sales data released on Tuesday may become a consideration for the Fed to make up its mind. We expect that the "response" referred to by the Fed is likely to be after the release of the US retail data at 20:30 tonight. #加密市场急跌 #美联储利率决议公布在即 #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #BTC走势分析 #美联储何时降息？