A few days ago, a friend left me a message complaining that he now has all the altcoins in his hands. According to the current market situation, he is unwilling to sell them, but if he doesn’t sell them, he feels that it is only a matter of time before he loses all his money.
Yesterday, a friend also said: His Ethereum contract expires on the 27th. He has already lost 21 contracts so far. It is a loss whether he breaks even or not. Now his only hope is to lose less.
It can be seen that many people are not in a very good mood at the moment.
But there are also people with a better mentality, such as some big guys in the group who often tell jokes from time to time. A few days ago, a friend said to me in the group: Dalong studied as fiercely as a tiger, but ended up with all his warehouses in Bitcoin.
In fact, strictly speaking, not all of my positions are in Bitcoin. In this cycle, I have only invested 80% of my positions in Bitcoin.
As for "researching like a tiger": I can't really say I'm researching, I just keep a learning mindset and stick to a learning state. This aspect is more of a personal hobby, mainly to find some materials or thinking points for the continuous output of the content of the talk. However, I rarely write articles to take advantage of new hot topics. The main principle is that I write casually and everyone can read it casually.
As for "all positions are in Bitcoin": this belongs to the investment strategy aspect. In the previous article of Hualihuawai, I also shared my own three-character investment mantra (stable, hoard, and less).
Simply put, writing articles (self-media) and hoarding coins (investment) are two different things, and they do not conflict with each other. Moreover, at present, my personal time and energy can only do these two things well. Different people have different risk preferences and investment goals. Choosing what suits you is actually the best.
In an article about the market a few days ago (September 4), we mentioned that if Bitcoin can break through $73,000 in the future (for example, before the end of the year or next year), it may rekindle people's interest and hope in the market, and perhaps we can see new opportunities and usher in a short bull market. The market is more often a manifestation of emotion, because human nature is like this. The market often arises in despair, breaks out in disagreement, and ends in madness.
At this stage, the market seems to still have large differences, and many analysts believe that the US will cut interest rates this month. Judging from the current situation, the market should have strengthened its expectations of 25bps. The biggest concern (worry) at the moment may be whether the market has already priced in expectations of 50bps.
As for how much change the market will see in the short term? This requires watching the FOMC meeting in the United States in two days (September 18). The short-term volatility of the market may still be relatively large in the next few days. It is recommended to watch more and do less. As the FOMC meeting proceeds, one of the more likely scenarios in the market this week is (it is just a guess) that we may see the price of Bitcoin rise to around $61,000 again, then fall again, and continue to fluctuate within a range.
The market trend is somewhat random. Although on the surface we cannot make an accurate prediction, through some basic news and data, we can still try to think about some possible market performances in the last quarter of this year.
For example, in terms of historical return performance, the fourth quarter is also the best quarter for BTC so far, with an average return of 88.84%. Moreover, during the past two halvings, BTC rose by 58.17% (2016) and 168.02% (2020), respectively. As shown in the figure below.
Of course, historical data is only one aspect, and can only be used as a reference, not directly to predict the future, because different situations will occur in different periods, and we need to consider them comprehensively. For example, in addition to some fundamentals and news factors of the crypto market itself (this content has been sorted out in previous articles of Hualihuawai, so we will not repeat it here), we also need to consider the current macro situation.
Next, let's take a look at what other aspects need attention from a macro perspective:
The first thing to focus on is the US election.
Many analysts now seem to link Trump and cryptocurrencies together, so this year's US election is also considered to be one of the important factors that will determine the direction of the crypto market. It is generally believed that if Trump can win the US election in November, it will be considered beneficial to the crypto market.
But judging by the current odds, it seems hard to say who will win in the end, with the probability being 50/50, as shown in the figure below.
The second thing that needs attention is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut.
Judging from the data released by the United States, it seems that inflation is cooling down, and the latest CPI reading shows the lowest level since February 2021, as shown in the figure below. This means that interest rate cuts may come soon. As we mentioned above, there may be results in the next few days.
However, regarding the Fed's rate cut, there are two different voices in the market. Some analysts are bullish, while others generally believe that the rate cut is bearish. We will not give a specific conclusion here, but we can give some basic views. As for whether to be bullish or bearish, you can make your own judgment: Generally speaking, it is reasonable for the first rate cut to be considered bearish only when there is an expectation of a recession. But if it is a non-recession period, the first rate cut can also be bullish.
Once again, we need to pay attention to the issue of the US dollar index.
The US dollar index needs to be considered together with the issue of interest rate cuts, because the Fed's interest rate cuts will lead to a weakening of the US dollar index, which usually means that it is beneficial to risky assets such as stocks, gold, and Bitcoin. In other words, once the US dollar weakens, risky assets such as Bitcoin will become more attractive to investors, which may lead to a new round of price increases for Bitcoin. As shown in the figure below.
Finally, we need to pay attention to the overall global liquidity situation.
The essence of any financial market is liquidity, and Bitcoin is no exception. Someone has done a statistical analysis, and based on historical data, for every 10% increase in global liquidity, gold will rise by 15%. Compared with gold, Bitcoin will rise by about 90%. As shown in the figure below.
Judging from the current Global Liquidity (M2) data, global liquidity is expected to continue to increase by 2025. As shown in the figure below.
In summary, regarding the overall trend of the crypto market, we still maintain the views expressed in our previous article: the market is still expected to improve before the end of this year or next year (2025).
But this improvement does not mean that the price of Bitcoin will skyrocket. Perhaps we will still face continued volatility in the market (even the rise will not be smooth sailing).
The fourth quarter of this year will be a critical turning point not only for the crypto market but also for the global economic trend. Many people are still discussing whether to buy Bitcoin, but we only care about one thing: how many Bitcoins we have already accumulated.
Again, the market is unpredictable, anything can happen, things can change slowly or very quickly. But no matter what, from a long-term perspective, as long as we hold on to the cake in our hands, continue to be optimistic and patient.
At the end of this article, let's end with a quote from Paul Orfalea (billionaire and founder of the famous American chain printing brand Kinko's): At 20, experience the world to your heart's content; at 30, figure out what you are good at; at 40, make money with what you are best at, and then try to retire at 50. At 20, you care a lot about what people think; at 40, you no longer care about what others think; at 60, no one cares about you.
This is where we share the content for this issue. You can view more articles on the homepage of Hualihuawai.
