Federal Reserve officials are closer to achieving their goal of low inflation as they head into Tuesday's policy meeting, but how they will adjust interest rates remains an open question. Inflation data showed that price pressures have eased sharply after a sharp increase in 2021-2022. A consumer price index showed that the 12-month inflation rate hit its lowest level since February 2021, while a measure of wholesale prices suggested that price increases were largely under control.

The data were apparently enough for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to make a decision on a rate cut when it concludes its meeting on Thursday and update its forecasts for the central bank's future path.

“We’ve had two more months of good inflation data since the last Fed meeting, and that’s what the Fed asked for,” Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors and a former Fed economist, said in an interview Friday.

The question now, however, is how far the Fed should go. Financial markets, a compass for where the central bank is headed, haven’t been helpful on that front. Futures markets spent much of last week focused on a 25 basis point rate cut, but on Friday traders shifted to almost equal odds of a 25 or 50 basis point cut, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Sam is among those who think the Fed should do more. "The inflation data alone should be enough for us to cut 25 basis points next week and there will be a series of rate cuts after that," she said. She believes the federal funds rate is already above 5% and has been there for more than a year to fight inflation. "The battle is already won, and they need to start cutting rates," she said.

This would imply a 50 basis point cut from the outset as a way to protect against a potential labor market recession.

“The labor market has softened since last July, so part of this is a recalibration,” she said. “We are getting more information. Fed officials need to make this 50 basis point cut and be ready to go further.”

“If Powell wants to deliver on his words, ‘We don’t want further weakening, we don’t want further cooling,’ they have to really act because this cooling trend is well established and unless it’s interrupted, we’re going to continue to see lower payrolls and higher unemployment,” Sam said.

Of course, there is also considerable support for the Fed to cut by just 25 basis points at next week's meeting, reflecting that the central bank has more work to do on inflation and that it is not too worried about a cooling in the labor market or the broader economy.

“That’s really the key thing they need to focus on, is that they’re normalizing policy and not trying to accommodate a really troubled economy, and I think they’re doing a very good job of that,” said Tom Simons, U.S. economist at Jefferies.

Even if Simons predicts that the Fed will only make a 25 basis point cut, the bank will still have plenty of room to move further in the future.

Indeed, markets are pricing in a potential 125 basis point drop in interest rates by the end of 2024, suggesting there is some sense of urgency to bring benchmark borrowing costs down from their highest levels in more than 23 years - currently between 5.25% and 5.50%.

“The reason they were so cautious in cutting rates was because they were concerned that inflation would come roaring back,” Simons said. “Now, they have more confidence based on the data that suggests inflation won’t come back immediately. But they do need to monitor the potential dynamics very carefully.”

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data