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Macro News

1. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of September 13, 2024, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (comprehensive index) was 2510.95 points, down 215.63 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Composite Index was 1818.31 points, down 4.9% from the previous period.

2. The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce stated that China has noted the relevant statements of the European side. China is deeply disappointed that the European Commission has ignored the sincerity and efforts of the Chinese industry and proposed to reject the flexible solution proposed by the Chinese industry without in-depth communication. China urges the European side to earnestly implement the important consensus reached by the leaders of China, France and the European Union at the trilateral meeting on properly handling economic and trade frictions through dialogue and consultation, show sincerity and take action, and seriously consider the reasonable concerns of the Chinese industry.

3. According to the central bank, preliminary statistics show that the stock of social financing scale at the end of August 2024 was 398.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year. In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 14.43 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 12.88 trillion yuan. At the end of August, the balance of broad money (M2) was 305.05 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 63.02 trillion yuan, a decrease of 7.3% year-on-year. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 11.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.2% year-on-year. Net cash injection in the first eight months was 602.8 billion yuan.

4. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in August, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; it rose by 0.4% month-on-month; the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3872.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. From January to August, real estate development investment fell by 10.2%, the same decline as from January to July.

Global futures market changes

1. International precious metal futures generally closed higher. COMEX gold futures closed up 0.99% at $2,606.2 per ounce, a record high, with a cumulative increase of 3.23% for the week. COMEX silver futures closed up 3.18% at $31.065 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 10.23% for the week.

2. International oil prices rose slightly, with the October contract of U.S. oil rising 0.39% to $69.24 per barrel, up 2.32% for the week; the November contract of Brent crude oil rose 0.07% to $71.48 per barrel, up 0.59% for the week.

3. Most of the base metals in London closed higher, with LME copper futures up 0.45% to $9,257/ton, up 2.9% for the week; LME zinc futures up 1.52% to $2,899.5/ton, up 6.7% for the week; LME nickel futures down 1.34% to $15,920/ton, up 0.17% for the week; LME aluminum futures up 2.38% to $2,473/ton, up 5.59% for the week; LME tin futures up 1.17% to $31,775/ton, up 2.42% for the week; LME lead futures up 0.74% to $2,042/ton, up 4.02% for the week.

4. The main contracts of agricultural futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed with mixed gains and losses. Soybean futures fell 0.42% to 1006.5 cents per bushel, up 0.15% for the week; corn futures rose 1.91% to 413.75 cents per bushel, up 1.85% for the week; wheat futures rose 2.9% to 595.25 cents per bushel, up 4.98% for the week.

Black hot news

1. According to SMM, Hesteel Group's first round of inquiries for silicon manganese in September was 5,950 yuan/ton, and the August silicon manganese price was 6,200 yuan/ton. (The price in September 2023 was 7,050 yuan/ton).

2. The southern silicon manganese factories have a low willingness to resume production. At the same time, some factories in Inner Mongolia have furnace maintenance and switched to other varieties, and the output of silicon manganese continues to shrink slightly. According to Mysteel statistics, the sample operation rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises nationwide is 43.54%, a decrease of 0.68% from the previous month; the average daily output is 25,190 tons, a decrease of 110 tons from the previous month.

3.Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills and found that the blast furnace operating rate was 77.63%, the same as last week and a decrease of 6.44 percentage points year-on-year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 83.89%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 8.76 percentage points year-on-year; the steel mill profit margin was 6.06%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 36.80 percentage points year-on-year; the average daily molten iron output was 2.2338 million tons, an increase of 7,700 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 244,600 tons year-on-year.

4.Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports across the country is 153.8354 million tons, a decrease of 254,100 tons from the previous month. The average daily port throughput of the 45 ports is 3.1160 million tons, an increase of 88,600 tons from the previous month.

5. The Shanghai Futures Exchange issued a notice, agreeing to increase the storage capacity of the designated delivery warehouse for hot-rolled coil futures of China Storage Development Co., Ltd. located at No. 1186 Lishui Street, Binjiang Economic Development Zone, Jiangning District, Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province, from 45,000 tons to 90,000 tons.

6. According to Mysteel, recently, India's largest state-owned iron ore producer NMDC plans to increase its annual iron ore production from 45 million tons in fiscal 2024 to 67 million tons in fiscal 2025, and ultimately achieve a production target of 100 million tons by 2030.

7. According to data from the Pilbara Ports Authority (PPA) of Australia, the iron ore exports from Port Hedland in August were 47.8522 million tons, compared with 43.1574 million tons in July; of which 40.7346 million tons were exported to China, compared with 34.1013 million tons in July. Port Hedland exported 146,000 tons of manganese ore in August, compared with 154,100 tons in July; of which 146,000 tons were exported to China, compared with 61,200 tons in July.

8. According to Mysteel, the price of coke in Tangshan market is planned to increase, with dry quenching coke increased by 55 yuan/ton. After adjustment, the price of first-grade dry quenching is 1935 yuan/ton, ex-factory price cash including tax; the price of coke in Shandong market is planned to increase simultaneously, with wet quenching coke increased by 50 yuan/ton and dry quenching coke increased by 55 yuan/ton. After adjustment, the mainstream price of quasi-first-grade dry quenching is 1815-1875 yuan/ton, all of which will be implemented from 0:00 on September 14.

9. In August 2024, the Ukrainian Railways transported 2.321 million tons of iron ore and manganese ore, a decrease of 11.9% from July and an increase of 69.1% from the same period last year. Among them, the export volume of iron ore by sea was 1.109 million tons, accounting for 47.8%; the export volume of iron ore by land transport was 1.212 million tons, accounting for 52.2%.

10. Liu Aihua, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that judging from the main indicators of the real estate market released, some indicators have shown a marginal narrowing under the influence of a series of policy measures. Judging from these changes, the current real estate market continues to be in adjustment. From the perspective of future development, China's urbanization process is continuing to advance, and the new model of real estate development is accelerating. The real estate market still has great potential and space. We must continue to adhere to the city-specific policy, accelerate the implementation of various policies, and promote the gradual stable and healthy development of the real estate market, so as to better meet the housing needs of the people.

11. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in early September 2024, key steel enterprises produced a total of 19.36 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.936 million tons, a daily increase of 2.7% month-on-month; 17.83 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.783 million tons, a daily increase of 1.6% month-on-month; 18.65 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.865 million tons, a daily decrease of 4.6% month-on-month.

12. According to Gangyin E-commerce, the total urban inventory this week was 8.703 million tons, a decrease of 698,800 tons (-7.43%) from last week, covering 39 cities and a total of 147 warehouses.

Hot news on agricultural products

​1. According to Wind data, as of the week of September 13, the profit of self-breeding and self-raising pig farming was 548.30 yuan/head, and the profit on September 6 was 559.36 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was 364.56 yuan/head, and the profit on September 6 was 359.80 yuan/head.

2. According to foreign media reports, EarthDaily Agro said that in Mato Grosso and Parana states in Brazil, soil moisture is at its worst level in 30 years, posing a challenge to sowing in the region. Brazil is the world's largest soybean producer and exporter, and Mato Grosso and Parana are among the top three soybean producing states in Brazil, with their total output accounting for about 40% of Brazil's soybean production.

3. Data released by the Canadian Grain Commission showed that Canada's canola exports fell 24.9% to 131,500 tons in the week ending September 8, compared with 175,000 tons in the previous week. From August 1, 2024 to September 8, 2024, Canada's canola exports were 1.1368 million tons, up 157.1% from 442,200 tons in the same period of the previous year. As of September 8, Canada's commercial canola stocks were 1.3789 million tons.

4. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics IBGE said that the country's sugarcane production is expected to reach 716.8 million tons in 2024, up 0.3% from the 714.6 million tons estimated last month; the country's cotton (seed cotton) production is expected to reach 8.6 million tons in 2024, a new record high, up 0.4% from the previous estimate, because the harvested area estimate was raised by 0.4% to 1.98 million hectares.

5. According to Mysteel Agricultural Products' nationwide dynamic full-sample oil mill survey, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills in the 37th week (September 7 to September 13) was 2.2385 million tons, and the operating rate was 64%, which was 91,200 tons lower than expected.

6. Wilmar Sugar and Renewables, Australia's largest sugar producer, said last Friday that it has crushed 6.3 million tons of sugarcane so far this season, accounting for about 40% of the amount that should be crushed this season.

7. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released data showing that private exporters reported sales of 100,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in 2024/2025. The U.S. soybean year began on September 1.

8. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics IBGE said in a report that Brazil's soybean production in 2024 is expected to be 145.3 million tons, down 0.1% from the July estimate and down 4.4% from 2023 production.

9. According to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) supplementary report, speculators made the following adjustments to CBOT wheat, corn and soybean futures and options positions in the week ending September 10: Speculators reduced their net short positions in wheat by 11,363 lots to 69,424 lots. Speculators reduced their net short positions in corn by 44,703 lots to 112,261 lots. Speculators reduced their net short positions in soybeans by 12,981 lots to 135,284 lots.

10. According to data released by shipping research agency SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 to 10 are expected to be 274,853 tons, a decrease of 43.9% from 489,898 tons exported in the same period last month.

Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News

​1. According to Longzhong Information, as of September 12, domestic PVC social inventory decreased by 3.51% month-on-month to 498,300 tons, an increase of 13.07% year-on-year; among them, the East China region was 457,100 tons, a decrease of 3.63% month-on-month and an increase of 20.01% year-on-year.

2. Macquarie Group said that the global oil market will turn into "severe surplus" next year, and Brent crude oil prices are expected to be US$79/barrel this quarter and US$73/barrel in the fourth quarter of this year; US$70/barrel in the first quarter of 2025, US$64/barrel in the second quarter, US$69/barrel in the third quarter, and US$72/barrel in the fourth quarter.

3. According to Wind data, as of September 12, the methanol inventory in East China ports was 580,900 tons, compared with 608,100 tons in the same period last week, a decrease of 27,200 tons from the previous month.

Metal Hot News

1. According to SMM research, due to the lining falling off of the roasting furnace, a large alumina plant in the north entered maintenance, which is expected to last 15-20 days and involve a production capacity of 1 million tons.

2. According to Mysteel's research and statistics, during the current period (September 5, 2024 - September 11, 2024), 1.2038 million wet tons of nickel ore were shipped to China from the Philippines, a decrease of 7.02% from the previous month and a decrease of 24.1% from the previous year; 1.3572 million wet tons were shipped to major Chinese ports, a decrease of 34.42% from the previous month and a decrease of 26.01% from the previous year.

3. Data from the Pilbara Ports Authority (PPA) of Australia showed that Port Hedland exported 132,396 tons of spodumene concentrate in August and 92,533 tons in July; among them, 101,116 tons were exported to China, and 92,533 tons in July.

4. According to SMM, a recycled lead refinery in Henan said: The recent production situation is relatively stable, with daily output maintained at around 400 tons, but scrap battery holders are bullish and reluctant to sell, and there is pressure on raw material procurement. A large recycled lead refinery in Inner Mongolia said: The lead price trend has not yet stabilized, and the date of resumption of production is to be determined.

5. According to Mysteel, Albemarle held a bidding activity for chemical grade spodumene concentrate on the Metalshub platform on September 13, 2024. The bidding included 16,200 metric tons of chemical grade spodumene, with a grade of 5%-6% and a particle size of 0-0.125mm, produced in Wodgina, Australia. The bidding price was US$808/ton (60% off) CIF China price, equivalent to 77,000/ton of lithium carbonate (tax included).

6. Data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed that copper inventories decreased by 29,854 tons, aluminum inventories decreased by 2,174 tons, zinc inventories decreased by 2,793 tons, lead inventories increased by 20,956 tons, nickel inventories increased by 1,571 tons, and tin inventories decreased by 295 tons last week.

Bragging about "futures" - revealing the logic of commodity trading!

1. The USDA September report is neutral overall. What will the market focus on in the future?

Huaxin Futures analysis shows that the USDA September supply and demand report basically meets market expectations, and the report is neutral overall. The data adjustment of this report is very limited, and the current market has been fully traded for the expected bumper harvest of US soybeans. The report itself has limited impact on the market. CBOT soybeans rose slightly, and both soybean meal fluctuated upward. US soybeans will enter the harvest season. Judging from the current weather conditions, the probability of a bumper harvest is high. The market's subsequent focus will shift to the South American soybeans that are about to be planted. The current drought in Brazil may affect the progress of Brazilian soybean planting. Continue to pay attention to the weather conditions in soybean producing areas. Oils and fats rose in the early trading due to the strengthening of crude oil. Rapeseed oil broke through the 9,000 mark during the session, but the price fell as long positions closed for profit. It is expected that the future trend of oil and meal will be volatile, and the rapeseed system will have strong support.

2. The price of soda ash has fallen to a low range, and the room for further decline may be relatively limited?

CITIC Securities Futures analysis pointed out that the characteristics of the soda ash bear market are relatively obvious, and the medium-term bear market trend is difficult to reverse, but the current price has fallen to a low range, and the odds of continuing to short soda ash are relatively low. Based on the analysis of fundamentals and market game, the room for soda ash prices to continue to fall is relatively limited. If the supply side drops beyond expectations or the demand side recovers beyond expectations, the soda ash price is expected to usher in a stage rebound. In the most pessimistic scenario, the soda ash price may fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended that short orders can be gradually exited around 1300-1350; downstream companies should pay attention to the opportunity to buy hedging in batches at 1250-1350.

A look at this week's important futures data and events

​1. September 16th (tbd), Mysteel will announce the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil and the iron ore arrivals at ports in northern China. Since the beginning of this year, iron ore prices have continued to fall, a big reason being the supply-demand contradiction caused by the increase in iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil and weak market demand. We need to pay attention to subsequent changes in the iron ore supply side.

2. To be determined on September 18, the main contract of BMD Malaysian palm oil futures will be changed to a new month.

3. September 18th (tbd), SPPOMA will announce Malaysia's palm oil production forecast for September 1-15. SPPOMA previously announced data for September 1-10, showing that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 2.02% from the previous value. It will be observed whether this data can continue the upward trend.

4. At 02:00 on September 19, the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, followed by a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at 02:30. With inflationary pressures falling and signs of weakness in the job market, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to adjust its monetary policy. This expectation was supported by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, where he said that "the time for policy adjustment has come" and that if economic data meets expectations, the Federal Reserve may discuss lowering the policy rate at its September interest rate meeting. The significance of this decision is that it will mark the end of the Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy cycle implemented since March 2022 to respond to high inflation.

5. At 9:00 on September 20, the People's Bank of China released the September loan market quotation rate (LPR). Previously, the 1-year and 5-year LPR were lowered by 10 basis points respectively in July. Zhang Yi, president of China Construction Bank, said at the bank's 2024 mid-term performance conference that major banks have lowered deposit rates at the same time, which can effectively offset the negative impact of the decline in LPR this year, and the impact on the full-year net interest margin can be said to be minimal.

6. September 20th is to be determined, China's iron ore inventory at 45 ports as of September 19th. Previously, China's iron ore inventory at 45 ports as of September 12th was 153.8354 million tons. The black series has stopped falling and fluctuated recently. Pay attention to whether the iron ore inventory at the ports can decrease and boost the black series.

7. To be determined on September 20, a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil will begin.

8. September 20 (tbd) The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) will release the August global primary aluminium production report. In July, global primary aluminium production was 6.194 million tonnes, compared with 6.048 million tonnes in the same period last year.

9. September 20th (tbd), ITS/Amspec/SGS announced Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 to 20. According to Malaysia's independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 to 10 were 412,771 tons, a decrease of 5.2% from 435,413 tons exported in the same period last month. Pay attention to whether the trend of decreasing palm oil exports will continue. If it continues to decrease, it may be bearish for palm oil prices.

10. At 2:00 a.m. on September 21, Harker, 2026 FOMC voting member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, delivered a speech at the Freeman School of Business at Tulane University.

11. At 02:30 on September 21, NYMEX New York crude oil October futures were affected by the transfer of positions and the last transaction on the floor was completed at 2:30 on September 21. Investors need to pay attention to the announcement of the expiration and month change of trading venues to control risks. In addition, the expiration time of US oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX.

The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data