After more than 5 months of shocks, the market has been fully prepared. The trend of cryptocurrencies will be completely determined by external macro factors and has nothing to do with internal chip conversion.
The external macro environment has a decisive factor: whether the US economy is in recession. Whether the interest rate is cut by 25 or 50 basis points in September, the real focus of the market behind it is actually the core issue of whether the US economy will have a soft landing or a hard landing.
From the US August non-farm payrolls data, which is lower than expected, the weak non-farm data has exacerbated concerns about economic recession, and the expectation of interest rate cuts fluctuates between 25 or 50 basis points. Here, I would like to point out that the Federal Reserve has not yet announced that it will inevitably cut interest rates in September. The discussion about 25 or 50 basis points is all market predictions. Although the possibility of a rate cut is relatively high from the data, I personally think that there is still a possibility of no rate cut in September.
However, most analysts expect the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points to rise to 45%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 55%. If the rate cut is finalized in September, there are major economic and employment data indicating that the economy is "hard landing" (sharp economic slowdown), and the US stock market is likely to experience violent fluctuations, and BTC will not be optimistic accordingly.
Therefore, although the rate cut is implemented in September, if there is no data support to relieve the market's concerns about the risk of a recession in the US economy, the downward trend of Bitcoin will be difficult to reverse. At present, the spot ETF market has seen capital outflows for 8 consecutive days, and large outflows occurred on 3 of the 4 trading days in September. These funds are obviously based on this concern and temporarily leave the market to avoid greater risks.
In addition, the negative factors in the crypto market have not been completely eliminated. The price of Bitcoin may be affected by the selling of the US government in the next few months. The US government has more than 203,000 Bitcoins worth $12.1 billion.
Although Mt. Gox creditors who have received repayments are not yet in a hurry to take profits, any changes in their behavior may weaken market sentiment. Bitcoin's turbulence could extend into December as Mt. Gox and the U.S. government threaten to add nearly $15 billion in additional selling pressure.
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