The US August CPI will be released at 8:30 tonight. My personal opinion is that tonight's CPI will be positive. A high CPI represents inflation, and interest rates will be raised to bring funds from the market back to the bank. Many people will choose to deposit money in banks without taking any risks, and they can get very good returns. Since the interest rate hike, CPI has been falling all the way, and a decline represents deflation. Deflation will cut interest rates, allowing the money originally deposited in banks to circulate in the market. The previous value of tonight's CPI is 2.9%, and the expectation is 2.6%. Judging from various data from the United States, the probability that the data released by tonight's CPI will be lower than expected is relatively high. If it is lower than expected, the probability of a rate cut will increase.
Judging from the non-agricultural data and CPI data, a rate cut in September is inevitable.
A rate cut will benefit the financial market, but with the correction of the market during this period, the current sentiment in the currency circle is not optimistic.
Slowly, another view has emerged, that a 25 basis point rate cut and a 50 basis point rate cut are both bearish, and this view surprised me.
No interest rate cut is bad news, interest rate cut is also bad news, interest rate cut by a few basis points is bad news, interest rate cut by a lot of basis points is still bad news, that is to say, it is bad news no matter what.
This makes me feel incredible, how do these people survive in the currency circle!
