Disclaimer: This text does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell, but merely a reflection on possible scenarios. Consider other analyses and remember that Bitcoin is a volatile asset, subject to unpredictable movements.
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I currently have two distinct analyses on BTC that deserve attention, one bullish and the other bearish. I believe there is a greater probability that we are in a bullish scenario for Bitcoin, but it is important not to rule out either possibility, especially considering the critical moment the market is going through.
Bullish:
Target between 59k and 60k: BTC could target the price between 59,000 and 60,000, followed by a normal correction. I believe it is essential to consider taking partial or full profits in this range, given that the market would have risen approximately 14%. A good buying opportunity could arise just below, in the Fibonacci 0.768 region, which could coincide with the closing of a gap and generate fear in the market.
Buying opportunity after correction: After the aforementioned correction, with the purchase at Fibonacci 0.768 and the closing of the gap, the market tends to continue rising, following the ongoing upward movement. It is advisable to consider a stop below this Fibonacci for greater safety. In this optimistic scenario, BTC could surpass 61,000 again, reaching 63,000. In this range, I suggest partial or full realization to secure profits. If BTC surpasses the 65,000 top, the bearish outlook would be almost ruled out. Placing a buy stop at the 65,000 top can offer a good risk/reward, especially if there is an opportunity to sell between 63,000 and 64,000. If everything goes well and BTC surpasses the 65,000 top, we will possibly go after the ATH or at least 70,000.
Bearish:
Failure to break 65k: In the bearish scenario, BTC could follow a similar movement as described in the first part of the bullish scenario, but without being able to break the 65k top. This failure could form the first clear bearish structure for Bitcoin in 2024, potentially taking the price towards the 25k to 30k range.
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Disclaimer: This text does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell, but merely a reflection on possible scenarios. Consider other analyses and remember that Bitcoin is a volatile asset, subject to unpredictable movements.
