Sector rotation! These coins are about to surge by 30%, come and have a look!
What's going on? Bitcoin ETF hits record for longest net outflow of funds, is Wall Street going to give up on the cryptocurrency world? Will Bitcoin definitely rise after a rate cut?
Last Friday's employment data caused the cryptocurrency market to plummet by 15%, and this week another important data was released. Will it be different this time? Let's follow Shuqin to find out~
First of all, the Bitcoin ETF has achieved a record eight consecutive days of net outflows, which is deeply disturbing. Moreover, it is not a small outflow, but hundreds of millions of funds are fleeing every day, and the risk aversion sentiment is serious.
In fact, it's not just Bitcoin. U.S. stocks have also been falling for more than half a month. The reason is what we said before, market trends are often contrary to people's expectations.
In the past, when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, U.S. stocks, which are closely related to the cryptocurrency world, would experience very large pullbacks or even financial crises, such as the Internet bubble in 2000, the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, and the epidemic in 2020.
The only thing to be thankful for now is that most of the previous plunges were caused by major economic problems and then the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates frantically. This time, the Federal Reserve has actually taken action in advance and cut interest rates when the US economy is still relatively strong, so the probability of a soft landing of the economy is still relatively high, but short-term panic is definitely inevitable.
In fact, before the release of the employment data on Friday, I warned everyone that the data was likely to be bearish, with a small probability of remaining flat. After all, the ADP of the previous day hit the lowest value in three years, so these data are very worthy of our attention.
What is different this time is that the potential financial crisis had already been priced in by the market two years ago when the Federal Reserve was frantically raising interest rates. At that time, the U.S. stock market was almost cut in half. In the end, nothing happened, and the cryptocurrency market and U.S. stocks took off again.
So it is time to buy the bottom when the market plummets, but it is best to buy spot products without the risk of liquidation. Don't be greedy for leverage. After all, there is no second chance in life. Think about it, if this 20% probability of financial crisis really comes, and all your positions are reduced to zero, can you accept it? Right, the only thing that can ruin you in the cryptocurrency world is your greed.
And when Bitcoin breaks through its previous historical high of 75,000, the bull market will start, and we will increase our positions and leverage on the currency basis. Hey, won’t this be more stable?
In fact, we have experienced this kind of long-term volatile market many times before.
Whether it is 2022 or 2023, there will be more than 200 days of ups and downs before Bitcoin breaks through the previous high and starts a new round of market. Now it has been 190 days, and the market reversal may not be far away.
Therefore, Benqin is still full of confidence in the cryptocurrency circle in the next few months, because the fourth quarter has always been the quarter with the largest increase in Bitcoin.
The average increase in the fourth quarter was 88%, and the median increase was as high as 57%. This was calculated until the end of the year. The peak in the middle of the market was actually much higher than this.
The current third quarter is the worst performance for the cryptocurrency market, with the median increase even being negative, so the lack of increase in the past few months is actually in line with past patterns, so don't worry.
As early as July, Shuqin introduced the concept of summer off-season to everyone, telling them not to expect too much. But did you see that once the cryptocurrency market entered October, it was green, green, green, and it kept rising.
Therefore, it is only 20 days away from the start of the rally in October. We can get through it if we grit our teeth. Believe in the consensus of Bitcoin, the bull market will come eventually but surely.
Okay, after talking about the overall market, let’s take a look at the situation of several small coins.
First of all, dog-like coins such as Doge, WIF and Floki are about to usher in a golden age, that is, Musk may join Trump’s cabinet.
He even launched the Department of Government Efficiency this weekend, and the initials also mean Doge.
So after Trump is elected on November 5 and Musk joins Trump's cabinet, Dogecoin will definitely go up, and it is possible to double in a week. Because this has happened before. In October 2022, when Musk announced that he would take over Twitter, Dogecoin went crazy and tripled in less than a week.
Therefore, Musk’s entry into the White House this time should have a similar effect, and other Bitcoin-like coins will also benefit from it, so the copycat season is likely to begin in November.
In the short term, the Solana conference on September 20 will be good for Sol, and Zhao Changpeng's return on September 29 will be good for BNB. We can plan these in advance.
Then Fet and People both rose by 20% due to the Apple conference on the 10th and the last minute of the presidential debate. Remember to sell at highs in the past two days. I have already taken all profits on Fet, and I will also clear People tonight and tomorrow. You can even short People at a low multiple for a few days tomorrow morning.
After the cryptocurrency market plummeted in the early hours of last Saturday, I reminded the air traders to quickly take profits and buy at the bottom. Sure enough, Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded sharply afterwards. Not only did the air traders escape the bottom, but those who bought at the bottom also had to congratulate you.
Baozi also wanted to short ETH at 2300, but I dissuaded him in time, because the resistance of ETH this time was not at 2300, but at 2400. Then ETH reached 2382 this morning.
Those who want to operate together can come and have a look. Benqin updates the operation in real time every day.
Okay, let’s continue.
The employment data released last Friday caused the cryptocurrency market to plummet by 15%, and this week’s data is also very important. After all, the Federal Reserve is about to hold a rate meeting, and the first rate cut will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points.
The CPI inflation data to be released this Wednesday was 2.9% in the previous period, while the market expectation this time was 2.6%. It can be said that the market is very aggressive.
On the other hand, the previous value of the core CPI was 3.2%, and the current forecast is also 3.2%. These two data are quite strange. One is expected to plummet, and the other is expected to remain unchanged. It is really strange when the interest rate is cut. I think as long as inflation does not rebound, it will be fine. If inflation rebounds at this time, should the Fed cut interest rates or not?
But don't worry, under such high interest rates, inflation will definitely go down in the long run, and the market's focus will gradually shift from inflation to concerns about employment data.
Although there are many uncertainties in the short term, as the Federal Reserve gradually loosens its monetary policy, a bull market is bound to come, especially in 2025, when interest rates will be much lower than they are now.
So be patient, and let’s witness a miracle together next year, okay!
