In the past 24 hours, the entire network has liquidated $130 million
In the volatile market of Bitcoin, according to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, the total amount of cryptocurrency liquidation exceeded 131 million US dollars (96.89 million US dollars for short positions), and nearly 40,000 people were liquidated. However, despite this, the data is not particularly serious compared with past history, and it seems that investors are currently taking risk-averse actions.
Bitcoin briefly broke through $58,000 in the early morning, but selling pressure emerged. At the time of writing, it was trading at $56,899, and the increase in the past 24 hours narrowed to 3.65%.
Ethereum is approaching $2,400, with a similar trend, having hit a high of $2,382 earlier. At the time of writing, it was trading at $2,347, up 2.29% in the past 24 hours.
The main issues that everyone is concerned about now are: Will the interest rate cut lead to a rise in prices? When will the bull market begin? Let’s look at the data first:
1. The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 2 points and Bitcoin may plummet!
10x Research analyzed in a report on Monday that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points in September, it may put downward pressure on risky assets including Bitcoin and stocks.
Thielen noted:
A 50 basis point rate cut next week could mean heightened concerns about the economy or that the Fed is behind the curve in responding to an impending slowdown, leading investors to reduce exposure to risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and stocks.
While a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed could signal to markets deeper concerns, the Fed's primary focus will be on mitigating economic risks rather than managing market reactions.
2. The market predicts that the probability of a 2-digit drop in September is less than 30%.
At the time of writing, the FedWatch tool of CME shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5% next week is 27%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 1 basis point, or 25 basis points, to 5% to 5.25% is as high as 73%.
3. Bitcoin's two reversal indicators recovered from oversold levels, showing short-term rebound potential
10x Research pointed out in a new report today that Bitcoin is trying to rebound after last week's sharp drop. Currently, two of Bitcoin's three reversal indicators have recovered from deep oversold levels, indicating the potential for a short-term counter-trend rebound, and the opportunity still exists.
My view on the current market, based on past experience, the expectation of interest rate cuts is often over-hyped. The situation where hot expectations become cold facts is similar to last year's Bitcoin ETF and this year's halving market. Therefore, the impact of interest rate cuts is similar. When the interest rate cut is actually implemented, both market sentiment and capital flow will definitely have a driving effect on the currency circle, but this is not the beginning of a bull market. It is likely to only trigger a short-term rise, and then it may fall back. The arrival of the bull market may have to wait until Trump returns to power. He may launch a series of policies to stimulate consumption, and the expectations for the crypto market are also expected to push the currency circle into a larger stage of development.
Long positions start to take profits, short positions start to stop losses or exit the market due to liquidation;
At present, the strangulation of short positions has been mostly completed. Next, the remaining short positions will be liquidated and those who missed out on opportunities will be slowly attracted to enter the market. The data shows that the positions are increasing. In addition, according to the mysterious long-short indicator of leeks, most retail investors have not yet changed their mood of opening short positions, and they still hold short positions or have not opened long positions.
There are still two months until the November election, so I hope that the high price, which is about 62,000 or above, can be washed down, otherwise it will hinder the upward momentum. After all, even if there is a market trend for the election, this sentiment is completely different from that after the release of funds. Breaking through 73,700 and not breaking through and giving to copycats are definitely different. Of course, we all hope to go higher, but of course we can't be too fomo.
At that time, we must also pay attention to the macro situation in the United States, unemployment rate, economy, inflation, etc. Because even if the election market is really there, there is still a risk of recession in the US economy. So we must pay attention. Even the expectation of a recession will lead to a market correction, not to mention a real recession. The market will definitely have a big correction. Whether there is a recession or not, it goes back to what was explained at the beginning of the article. There are big trends and small trends. It depends on your trading grasp and positions, whether you pursue fixed investment and long-term holding to escape the top or short-term waves, or both.
The rise has not ended yet, so do not open a short position. You can take a portion of the profit on the long position and continue to hold the rest.
Ethereum is on the brink of collapse? Is there still a chance?
This world is always so strange. When Ethereum was strong during the bear market, everyone was shouting "awesome, innovative, and promising future". Now that the market is sluggish, everything we do has become wrong.
Ethereum is oversold on a weekly basis! I dare not say whether the current price is the bottom, but it is indeed possible to usher in a decent rebound. Although from the current perspective, the previous two oversold Ethereum prices did become the bottom.
In fact, since the birth of Ethereum, it has been caught in endless debates, from the DAO hacking incident to the falsification of DApp to the rise of DeFi. The reason why each controversy is so fierce is that it shows that the development of Ethereum is highly valued. It has long represented Web3 and the crypto market and has become an indispensable backbone force.
Today's situation may be mainly caused by the lack of external liquidity caused by the US dollar interest rate hike. In this case, just look at the traditional Internet companies that have been stuck in the quagmire. Even unicorn companies in the AI star track may go bankrupt due to lack of liquidity. Today's encryption market is already very good compared to the bear market period of the past two years.
The lack of liquidity has resulted in a small amount of new money entering the market. Even though the "old money" who have more professional research on crypto assets recommends Ethereum, the concept of Bitcoin as digital gold is more in line with the current environment. At the same time, with the outbreak of the Meme wave, the few new money naturally diverted in large quantities, making Ethereum even more difficult.
Whether it is the recession of the overall environment or the shortage of liquidity, it will eventually pass, and the innovation and application adoption of encryption and Web3 will be accelerated, and everything will be back on track.
