The last data before the interest rate cut will be released on September 11. The seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate at the end of August was 2.9% before and 2.6% as expected. This expected value is very close to the Fed's target.
Therefore, considering the stable improvement of the current macro data and the conclusion of the Federal Reserve that the current economy is not in recession, we can be sure that the first 25 basis point rate cut will have the necessary benefits to the market, while if the first 50 basis point rate cut is implemented, the panic of economic recession will come again and the market will fall sharply.
Market Analysis
I think many people have started to be over-biased on this big rise last night. Let me make it clear to everyone that currently it is just a large-scale rebound while a small-scale rise. The market will reverse only if Bitcoin stands firmly above 6w, otherwise it is just a rebound.
Through the 4H K-line level pattern, we can see the rebound after this big drop. The bottom and the top are constantly rising. This kind of rise is definitely a callback to buy. It's just that the rise last night was too fierce. The harder it rises, the faster it falls!
Bitcoin rebound pressure this week: 585-598-611 Support level: 53650-52510-50610
ETH rebound pressure this week: 2410-2520-2600 Support level: 2225-2150-2075
BTCUSDT is currently in a 4-hour level of rising and a small level has begun to pull back. Today, the support level below the pullback is around 56240-55500-54800.
As long as today's pullback does not fall below the 4-hour support level of 55500, it will still go up after a pullback. Pay attention to the upper pressure levels near 57100-57630-58140!
ETH is currently rebounding at a small level in the 4-hour level and has started to pull back. Today, please pay attention to the support level below the pullback near 2333-2307-2275.
As long as today's pullback does not fall below the 4-hour support level of 2307, it will still go up after a pullback. Pay attention to the upper pressure levels near 2358-2381-2408!
Even if there is a rebound, there are few positive effects:
Despite today’s rebound, there are currently few potential near-term catalysts for Bitcoin, with August and September proving to be unusually weak months for Bitcoin prices, while October and the fourth quarter are typically favorable for price action.
In the weeks leading up to the fourth quarter, Bitcoin bulls may only be looking forward to potential catalysts outside of the cryptocurrency. These include macro news such as employment, inflation data and Fed policy, as well as the U.S. presidential election.
So far, Trump has shown a friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies.
Trump and Harris will have a presidential candidate debate this week, and the US government will release August CPI data on Wednesday evening (9/11), which is expected to increase market volatility.
Some institutions seem to think the market has bottomed out and are using this opportunity to increase their bullish bets in December and March, including buying a large number of Bitcoin call options expiring in March 2025 with strike prices of $85,000, $100,000 and $120,000.
September promises to be an interesting month for projects related to Binance and its blockchain. At the end of September, CZ, the former head of the largest cryptocurrency exchange, is set to be released from prison.
Although CZ is banned from managing the company in the future, his influence remains significant as he remains a holder of many projects, and his release from prison could drive a surge in projects invested by Binance.
