In fact, BTC has only experienced one interest rate cut cycle, which started in mid-2019;
Therefore, simply analyzing the long-term trend of BTC by interest rate cuts and interest rate hikes still lacks data basis. Fortunately, BTC currently follows the US stock market more often at a large level, so it is more meaningful to analyze the historical performance of the US stock market before and after the interest rate cut;
As shown in the figure: In the three interest rate cut cycles experienced by the S&P index futures in the past 20 years, the first two rounds were a sharp drop after the interest rate cut, while in 2019, the interest rate cut continued to break new highs until a sharp drop after the epidemic;
Then the conclusion is In fact, it is obvious that whether or not the interest rate is cut cannot determine the rise and fall of the market. What determines the market trend is the reason for the interest rate cut;
2000 and 2007 were both standard hard landings, while 2019 was a soft landing if the epidemic was excluded. The characteristics of the current economic environment are not clear, and it is in a superposition state of uncertainty whether there will be a recession;
So the focus should still be on employment data. If the unemployment rate begins to maintain uncontrollable growth after the interest rate cut, then the probability of a recession "hard landing" is higher. If it can be stabilized between 4.5-4% for a long time, then the probability of a soft landing is higher.
My personal opinion: The interest rate cut in September has been completely priced in. Under the condition of 25 basis points, the market will not have a significant reaction. The focus is still on the quality of the next employment data.
