BTC rate after the impulse of September 9: vision for the coming days and the rest of the month.
The#BTCrate growth on September 9 was even stronger than expected. Let us recall that in the first BTC review on September 9, at a rate of $55,400, our forecast sounded like this:
"... What are our expectations now? Testing the EMA 50 of the four-hour TF until the end of the day (currently $56,270) and developing a correction from there. Holding the volume level of $55,059 on the correction and the downward trend since August 25 will be considered a very good sign for the prospects of an uptick. But it would be ideal if the gap of $53,975-54,550 was closed by a squeeze on the correction..."
As a result, the growth started faster and was more active, buyers became more active and by the evening the growth target was reached. This forced us to reconsider the growth targets:
“…If the current four-hour candle closes above the EMA 50 of the four-hour TF (currently $56,220) or the momentum accelerates, we can expect a move to the next volume level, $57,709…”
Result - the current high of the day is set at $58,088. There are no reversal candles according to De Mark on the four-hour TF yet, but they are close, already the next ones. The high of this local growth has either already been set or will be set in the morning.
Important - the expected local correction does not cancel the uptrend prospects, because today's daily candle may become the first in a new ascending structure on the daily TF. Promising growth (not without local declines) until September 15-17. We need to wait for confirmation, the closing of the daily candle. But it is unlikely that the next hour will arrange a hard dump.
We would like to show two complementary waveform variants that we can see now - a local one and a more general one:
1. Very locally on the younger TFs, the growth from the low of September 7 is a five-wave structure, the third wave of which has been going on since the evening of September 8. Accordingly, when this growth ends, the fourth correction wave will begin and then the fifth, final one.
In the most probable scenario for bulls on the younger TFs, the high of the third wave will be set in the area of the volume level of $59,335. Where the pool of moving averages is also located nearby:
- EMA 200 of the four-hour TF (currently $59,002),
- EMA 200 of the daily TF (currently lies almost exactly at $59,335),
- EMA 50 of the daily TF (currently $59,880).
It is difficult to imagine that all this would be broken through at the end of the trend. Therefore, we expect a correction in the fourth wave from this zone. And it would be optimal for the bulls to go no lower than the test of the volume level of $56,361 and the EMA 50 of the four-hour TF that has come exactly there. It just needs to be tested after the breakout. In general, the low of the fourth wave should not be lower than $54,850. The maximum target of the fifth wave, if it is possible to break through the specified resistance pool, and not get by with a truncated impulse, is the volume level of $61,231. It may be shorter.
2. In a more general picture, the entire growth from September 7 to today is only the first wave. And it is probably not finished yet. After it, the second correction wave will begin and we expect it to begin from the volume level of $61,231. Its low should be, in a case acceptable for bulls, not lower than the volume level of $55,059. Because going below this level and returning below the downward trend from August 25 is a risk of canceling our entire expectation with two five-wave structures.
What we expect from the five-wave structure in a more general picture is shown on the chart.
What is confusing is that in this scenario the price again approaches the downward trend with ATH on March 14 at the end of the impulse structure. If the third wave does not prove stronger, this risks being the fifth (!) unsuccessful breakout of the most important resistance, opening the way to a new ATH.
As for the threats of breaking all these growth expectations, it has already been written that it is important to hold $55,059. In case of a breakout of $55,059, the last stronghold of the bulls will be the $54,000 area. Squeezes are still possible there in the second wave, but consolidation below $55,059 is a risk of going lower. At least to the volume level of $51,604.
