After breaking through the 63,000 support, Bitcoin entered a new round of adjustment, and there is no sign of ending yet. From the weekly chart, last week's long shadow engulfed the previous positive line, and this week has not closed with a long lower shadow so far. It is very likely to form a downward relay pattern...
Back to the daily chart, there are divergences between the big and small cycles, but without the pressure of news and the drag of the US stock market over the weekend, the rebound is still weak. Fortunately, it pulled up before closing the weekly line, and the shape looks better. There are two relatively important pressure points above, 58,000 and 61,000. When it rebounds here, you can pay attention to the short-term chips. After the rebound, the probability of continuing to go down is still relatively large. In terms of position, if it goes down, the first target will be to test the previous low, that is, the support strength of the 49,000 line. This can be regarded as the second test after the 49,000 pin. Personally, I think it can be supported here, but whether it can be used as a reversal position depends on the impact of the external financial market and news. The entire market is suppressed by the recession cloud that may appear due to the interest rate cut. Investors in risky assets have also turned from optimism to caution. Many funds continue to flee. The problem of liquidity has caused the cottage to go bearish all the way! So, assuming that there is no black swan, under normal trends, where will the extreme decline of the cake be? Our judgment is that it is not far from the current time, and the possibility of stopping the decline in the 42,000~44,000 range is very high.
First, let's take a look at the current mining cost. The cost of a new mining machine is roughly around 43,000. Secondly, let's study the current distribution of chips. This interval is where the chips are very concentrated, and the support is very strong. In addition, it is also roughly close to the Bollinger middle track of the monthly line. Taking all factors into consideration, this will be a very tempting entry position. If you can reach it, you can definitely participate boldly! If you are unlucky and a black swan appears together, there is a high probability of a needle, and it is expected to go to 38,000. Going down is just YY without any basis. Therefore, the possibility of the chips being trapped here is very small, and the profit and loss ratio is very high!
In terms of institutional movements, the bulls of Big B Network have frequently increased their positions recently, and the amount of increase is also large. As a network with a keen sense of smell, although Big B Network will not buy or sell at the absolute high or low points every time, most of the time it trades within the range of relative highs and lows. This also supports our view that the low point will not be too far away, and it can be used as a reference!
Regarding the choice of currency, due to the constraints of liquidity before the release of water, it is still recommended to operate mainly large currencies first. Ethereum SOL and BNB are both good targets. The Bitcoin ecology and Bitcoin's increase are strongly linked. The stx, rif, ckb mentioned last time, including the three inscriptions, also have relatively large chances.
September is destined to be an eventful month. It is located in a huge window of market change. The tone of the interest rate decision on the 19th is superimposed with the US election. There are many variables and the trend will be complicated and changeable. For spot traders, it is better to watch more and do less. If the price falls to the key support range, you can buy the bottom. If there is any good news, we will find a right side retracement position to get on the train. The profit is less, but it is much safer and there is no loss! (For fixed investment or key positions in batches, you can refer to this strategy)
