September 9, 2024
The market has a short-term "bottoming out" trend. If this wave goes up directly, then the second bottoming out I mentioned will form a third support with the previous low point, that is, it will stop falling at 52,500, instead of going to 49,000. After all, the market on August 5 was an extreme trend because the decline was too fast and there were serial liquidations. Because the short-term support signal in the past few days is very obvious, I have repeatedly reminded that this position can only be entered, not exited. If it can maintain stability next, it will try to hit the pressure of 65,000 points again.
Although the probability of a rate cut on the 19th of this month is very high, judging from the trend of US stocks, the risk has not been completely eliminated. The Nasdaq has shown a unilateral downward trend at the daily level. What is more noteworthy is that since the rebound on August 5, it has only touched 18,000 points and then turned downward, and the high point was 18,671. On the other hand, the S&P and Dow Jones have reached a new high and a close to the previous high. The three market differentiation is rare. Combined with the stock prices of Nvidia and others, this wave of capital flight from the technology market is more obvious and rapid.
In short, the US dollar capital market is now divided. Those who flee are very decisive, and the funds betting on the election are also more aggressive. For us, whether there will be a black swan in the US stock market is an important consideration. However, if there is an obvious bottoming signal in the market, there is no need to wait for the US stock market to plummet. After all, the US stock market is also a mature long-term bull market, and it is difficult to have an Internet bubble-like crash. During this wave of decline, my position has reached 80%. Next, I will decide according to the situation. If there is no crash, I will fill it up in the next 2-3 months.
There is nothing much to say about the short-term market. After all, there is not much room for operation with this volatility. Basically, you just need to buy spot and wait for a rebound. There is no need to move for a rebound like today. What needs to be observed later is the strength of the rebound. Looking at this situation, it is not a big problem for the big cake to rebound to 60,000. The key is whether 65,000 can be broken. In the absence of any changes in the fundamentals, I judge that it will continue to move in this large range of 50,000-60,000 for a few more weeks. We will wait for the rebound to appear before further analysis.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
