Tonight's non-agricultural data is coming! Can it influence the trend of Bitcoin?
Last night, the small non-farm ADP was released, showing that the number of jobs increased by less than 100,000, slowing growth for the fifth consecutive month, further confirming the cooling of the job market, which is good for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Some people believe that the decline is due to
ADP employment data is not good, but it is not actually the case. A careful observation of the changes in US stocks and BTC shows that after ADP was released at 20:15 Beijing time, BTC
The best evidence is that when the U.S. stock market opened, the S&P opened flat and the Nasdaq fell slightly, while BTC was still in the rebound stage at that time, so the decline had nothing to do with ADP.
And the ADP data is not bad. The more important data is the non-farm data released tonight, among which the unemployment rate and wage growth rate are the most important for the Federal Reserve. It is not the first time that the ADP and non-farm data have diverged.
At present, the interest rate cut in September is a foregone conclusion, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut and a small probability of a 50 basis point cut. If the interest rate is cut by 50 basis points, it will be a big positive.
The unemployment rate and non-farm data released at 20:30 tonight are extremely critical, as these data will determine the extent of the interest rate cut. We must be alert to the possibility that the data will exceed expectations to prevent BTC from falling to 55,000.
The market fluctuates repeatedly, and Bitcoin is struggling to hold 56,000
The recent market has shown typical "monkey market" characteristics. After experiencing continuous corrections last week, this week has shown a very obvious up and down fluctuation trend. The current price trend of Bitcoin is still in the range of fluctuations. This kind of volatile market can easily cause investors to be washed out in short-term fluctuations.
The current position is easier to reverse the bullish trend than the adjustment phase in August, but the market still needs to wait patiently for signal confirmation.
At this moment, we must have a sense of the overall situation and must not be confused by the short-term K-line. Now we are in a large-scale adjustment cycle of the monthly line. If you still focus on the rebound on the minute line to look at the market, it is like pushing a car up the downhill road. Once you run out of strength, you will be run over by the car sooner or later.
Under the current market situation, investors are advised to reduce subjective judgment, respect the actual market signals, and not make blind operations due to short-term market fluctuations.
Be cautious about downside risks:
It is necessary to pay close attention to the specific performance of Bitcoin at the two support levels of 55555 and 56000. Once it falls below, it is necessary to pay close attention to the support area of 53000-54000. If these positions cannot achieve effective support, then the downside risk is likely to increase further.
Medium and long-term layout requires patience:
In the context of repeated market fluctuations, it is appropriate to wait for clearer trend signals to appear before launching medium- and long-term layout planning. The current market has not yet escaped from the range of fluctuations, and any rush to chase the rise or bottom-fishing is likely to lead to more serious losses.
In summary:
The short-term trend of Bitcoin still faces great uncertainty. Investors must remain calm and patient and wait for clearer trend signals to emerge before making decisions.
At this stage, only by properly controlling positions can we obtain the maximum possible profits.
There is still some distance to the goal of bottom-fishing, so you should be more patient and hold your position. No matter how you operate, you should always keep a free position in your hands, because the real big market has not yet arrived.
This is a time to go against human nature. Although it is unclear whether it will continue to fall, at this stage, the prices of many high-quality coins will make you miss them terribly when the big bull market comes!
Since I haven’t avoided every decline, I must not miss every rise in the future!
