The market has been on a bull run since it stopped raising interest rates in September last year. In the medium term, there has been a game of speculation over expectations of interest rate cuts, and then to the competition over expectations of interest rate cuts brought about by the future US economic recession. The overall trend is very clear.
The latest non-farm payrolls data for August was revised down by 820,000, which means that 820,000 employed people have “disappeared”, accounting for 30%. The employment data of the past year is seriously inflated, and the US is still very capable of falsifying data. Non-farm payrolls are an important economic indicator for whether the US economy is in recession, reflecting that the actual job market is not optimistic, further exacerbating market concerns about the US economic recession.
This time, the Fed took the initiative to release the news to release risks in advance and pave the way for future interest rate cuts. Against this background, gold hit a new high and Bitcoin rose strongly from 49,000 to 65,000. I think the US economic recession is inevitable, but whether it is a soft landing or a hard landing, it will ultimately be good for risky assets, especially Bitcoin.
The interest rate cut in September is almost certain, and the last round of expected game around the implementation of the interest rate cut will be the most intense. Since the approval of the US Bitcoin ETF, the price of Bitcoin has risen from 35,000 to 74,000. Although the total amount of funds is only 50 billion US dollars, most of the funds are still in the market, and new funds have not yet entered the market on a large scale.
Once interest rates are cut and large-scale money is released, the volume of ETFs will inevitably increase exponentially, especially the purchasing power of American retail investors cannot be underestimated. American retail investors have sufficient funds, and Bitcoin will reach a new height. Therefore, the most important strategy at present is to wait patiently. In fact, compared with many people who have "died" in the market, our situation is already good. At least we are still alive and still persisting in the market.
Many people in the market were completely defeated by altcoins this time. Bitcoin's pullback was actually quite mild, but altcoins almost suffered a drop to zero, with many currencies pulling back by more than 90%. Many people ignored the risks because of their excessive pursuit of high returns, and wanted to achieve ten or even dozens of times the return at every turn, ignoring the risks. Anyway, hold on, and the final market will definitely belong to those who can hold on to the end.
