When will the bear bottom be reached? Where will the bear bottom be?

The bear bottom will be the following four levels:

Level 1: 44,000 (quarterly BBI) - 48,000, 48,000 and 44,000 correspond to the other two unfilled gaps in CME.

Level 2: 39,000-39,500-40,000-42,000

Level 3: Annual MA5 36,888-37,000

Level 4: More than 50-60% drop from 73,777, 29,510-30,000-36,888-37,000

Next, we need to distinguish between the super cycle 2 wave weak Y wave and the super cycle 3-1-4 wave.

If it is a super cycle 2 wave weak y wave, the minimum target is near Fibonacci fan 0.6667 (located near 40000, 39000-39500-40000), and the ideal target is to reach the annual line ma5 36888-37000 at the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025. If a black swan appears, it is not ruled out that it will drop by more than 50-60% from 73777, that is, 29510-30000-36888-37000. At the same time, the decline is not less than the lower track of the monthly line KC, and the main decline ends at the lower track of the monthly line KC, and then it takes a period of time to bottom out below the lower track of the monthly line KC.

If it is a super cycle 3-1-4 wave, the ideal target is around Fibonacci fan 0.6667 (near 40000): at least reach 44000-48000 in August-October 2024, and ideally reach 39000-39500-40000-42000, but will not effectively lose the annual line ma5 36888-37000.