【9.6 Ice and Fire Island Strategy: Data dominates market sentiment, will non-farm payrolls lead to a weekend market crash? 】
Last night, recession expectations rose again, and analysts believe that the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 45%.
The ADP employment data, known as the "small non-farm payrolls", unexpectedly fell to 99,000, a three-and-a-half-year low, showing a sharp slowdown in the labor market. Tonight, the August non-farm payrolls data will affect the market and will have a huge impact on the September rate cut.
On the other hand, the US ISM service industry index in August has expanded moderately for two consecutive months, and the final value of the Markit service industry PMI is the highest in nearly two and a half years, and recession concerns have been dispelled.
The data-dominated market sentiment model of the US economy has gone a bit crazy. Once the subsequent data gets out of control, the Federal Reserve and even the entire US market may be backfired by the data.
However, there is still good news in China. On the one hand, the RMB exchange rate has risen, which will push up the A-share market index; on the other hand, Guotai Junan merged with Haitong, and the brokerage firm's big move indicates a rebound in the stock market.
How should cryptocurrency traders choose at the crossroads where US stocks are falling and A-shares are expected to rise? Obviously, the trend of Bitcoin has clearly followed the trend of US technology stocks.
In the next month, it is very necessary to prepare for a correction or even a plunge and take insurance measures.
Tonight's non-agricultural data is the first test.
Suggestions:
Ambush the double buy strategy half an hour in advance and bet on gamma riots and volatility surges.
After the data is released, monitor the opening trend of US stocks. If the stock trend is not good, stop loss and exit in advance. If there is a large fluctuation in US stocks, you can hold the position overnight and bet on the simultaneous plunge or surge of Bitcoin.
The seller recommends that you can clear the position in advance and re-establish the position on the weekend according to the change in volatility. September is a month to test patience and technology. The decline is not terrible. As long as you master the rhythm of volatility changes, the double sell strategy can still be profitable.
For more details, please join Binghuo Island to communicate.