Major direction:
Overall, there was a downward trend from September to October.
On September 10, the U.S. House of Representatives will hold a meeting to review DeFi, and the SEC will also make a report on law enforcement. This is bad news for the DeFi track. In the past few days, many DeFi tracks have been pulling up the market, which may be in preparation for subsequent negative news and declines, so be careful.
The meeting of the House of Representatives on September 18 coincided with the resolution of the Federal Reserve meeting. The meeting of the House of Representatives was bearish. The Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, either maintaining the interest rate unchanged or raising the interest rate, and would not cut the interest rate. Whether the interest rate remains unchanged or increases, the market will fall. The unchanged interest rate runs counter to market sentiment and will fall. The interest rate increase will make the market feel that the deviation is too large and then panic, and the market will fall deeper. In addition, the Bank of Japan will announce the interest rate situation on September 20, and it is basically certain that the interest rate will be raised by 0.25. The power of the first two daily rate hikes is obvious to all. The depth of the decline of the big cake is also very powerful, directly leading the downward trend downward, especially the one on July 31, which directly brought the big cake from 70,000 to 49,000. There are comprehensive factors to 49,000, and the opening decline is caused by the daily line. The above comprehensive analysis of the downward trend superimposed on the point of the big cake is likely to come to around 48,000.
From late September to October, the entire market was bearish in a falling mood, and even felt desperately that a bear market was coming. On October 31, the Japanese bank was likely to raise interest rates by 0.25, causing the market to continue to fall after rebounding from 48,000 points. In addition, the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting was held on November 6-7. September is the fiscal year settlement of the United States and the third quarter settlement. If the various economic data indicators of the United States in September and October are upward, the probability of raising interest rates at this meeting will increase. Data from the U.S. stock market in previous years showed that September and October were frequent periods of technical callbacks and adjustments, and black swans often appeared, so October will be more difficult.
In November and December, no matter what the Federal Reserve decides in November, the dust has settled on the U.S. election, the overall economy is improving, and the U.S. stock bull market will continue for 1-2 years. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs expect the U.S. economy to enter a recession in 2025, and the probability has dropped from the previous 30% to 20%, and it is very likely to drop to 15%. This is when the entire market begins to recover and start to rise. The upward trend will begin in November and December. Through cycle calculations, the technical side will also be able to digest the shorts and turn to longs after 4-7 weeks.
How to layout:
From September 5th to September 20th, control your positions. If you don't know how to trade, don't move. If you know how to trade, take the short wave and then withdraw. Keep your positions ready for a big drop. This wave of decline will see Bitcoin near 48,000 and Ethereum near 2,000-2,100. On September 6th, which is tomorrow, there will be good non-agricultural data and unemployment rate. If it rises, you can sell it without lingering.
From the end of September to the end of October, it was very obvious that the dealers of major currencies had begun to protect the market and collect chips. It was obvious that they had predicted the future trend. The dealer's strategy was to scare off the chips of retail investors and slowly start to take over the market. They also predicted that it would fall again, and would protect the market in batches and pick up chips. The most obvious thing was that the major currencies began to frequently appear the Morning Star, the General Pillar, and the Marshal Pillar. When the big cake fell, they would recover the lost ground. If it fell again, they would follow the fall and take over the market to recover the lost ground. Now it is basically a staged takeover, and there is at most a decline bottom below. We enter the market once it falls during this period, follow the rhythm of the dealer and take over. Don't worry about being trapped. Control your position and don't be full or empty. A decline is an opportunity to enter the market, and a deep squat is an opportunity to buy the bottom. It is predicted that the lowest point of big cake and Ethereum may be 48,000 to 1,700. Make a plan according to the point. The forecast is for reference only, and the specific adjustment needs to be made according to the actual market. It is not easy to say the point of the copycat, and everyone has a different temper. Keep an eye on the pie and see it fall, then you can enter the cottage you see.
In November and December, build positions in late September and October. If the bottom-fishing price is low enough, wait for delivery from November, 20-50% for major currencies, 50-100% for alt-meme coins (the specific profit depends on the price at which you built your position). If you don’t make a layout in September and October, don’t worry, you can chase it after it starts to go up.
The currencies that have been observed to be relatively strong recently are for your reference only: aave sui ftt zro ton bb saga sats ordi tru op sol qi strk ape blur, don't enter the market now, observe first, and gradually build a position according to the above strategy.
